Resolution criteria
This market will resolve based on the official total number of confirmed measles cases reported in the United States during the calendar year 2027 (January 1, 2027, through December 31, 2027).
The primary source of truth is the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Measles Cases and Outbreaks page.
Each option represents a threshold of total confirmed U.S. cases (e.g.,
> 500will resolve to YES if the final U.S. measles case count for 2027 is 501 or higher, and NO otherwise).Because case counts are subject to retrospective updates and reporting delays, this market will not resolve until the final annual or consolidated provisional totals for 2027 are published by the CDC (expected in early 2028).
If there is a discrepancy between different CDC tables, the finalized annual surveillance data (such as the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System / MMWR annual summary) or the final consolidated 2027 case count on the main CDC measles page will take precedence.
If the CDC stops updating its case count page or the URL changes, alternative authoritative sources utilizing official CDC/state data (such as the Johns Hopkins U.S. Disease Tracker or CDC MMWR reports) will be used to determine the final number.
Background
While measles was declared eliminated in the United States in 2000, cases have continued to occur due to unvaccinated international travelers returning to the U.S. and spreading the virus within under-vaccinated communities.
Recent historical context for U.S. measles cases:
2019: 1,275 cases (previously the highest since 1992)
2024: 285 cases
2025: 2,289 confirmed cases
2026: Surpassed 4,000 confirmed cases in October
Measles is highly contagious, meaning small changes in vaccination coverage can lead to large, exponential outbreaks. This market allows traders to predict whether the elevated transmission levels observed in 2025 and 2026 will persist, escalate, or subside in 2027.
This description was generated by AI.
1,000