In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
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11kṀ10m
2028
40%
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EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

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The few NO holders who are capable of extrapolation are coming up with increasingly convoluted cope to justify their positions

https://x.com/jkbr_ai/status/1953154961988305384

Obviously resolving YES

(friendly coded)

What pattern are we supposed to extrapolate? A single model is just a datapoint.

@GG veo2 and veo1

@Bayesian
A) When do you expect AI to be able to generate a 1 minute commercial in one shot, with no human in the loop? (Or if you think we've already crossed that, when did that happen?)
B) When do you think AI will be able to generate an 11 minute short film in one shot, with no human in the loop?

Take the time between B and A, and add it to B. That's when we should expect AI to generate a 121 minute feature film. The jump from a 1 minute commercial to an 11 minute short film is the same order of magnitude as a 11 minute film to a 121 minute movie.

@GG no it's not.

Find a film crew that just completed a 20 minute short film.

Hire them to create a 90 minute feature film, or a 150 minute epic. Do they need to upskill? Do they need to go back to film school? Do they need to learn how to make 30, 45, 60 minute films first?

No, at some point length decouples from the ability to make films. If you continue thinking of this purely in terms of length, I will take all your mana.

Hmm I think I'm down to "it will be theoretically possible but nobody will throw enough dev/compute at this specific application since interactive and short form output is more interesting/compelling/profitable" 😳

bought Ṁ50 NO

“high quality” is doing some heavy lifting here. if this resolves yes on a film with characters phasing through each others bodies and suddenly turning into inanimate objects that would be upsetting. but not much worse than marvel

@LukeShadwell agreed on the heavy lifting but obv not on your example. when in star wars did bodies glitch through each other? how is that more or less comparable? no big-budget studio film has bodies randomly glitching through each other. literally none.

@alextes I agree in general, I can handle books on a background bookshelf changing titles between shots, but not characters glitching through each other

However, in star wars, at least as they were originally released, we see a stormtrooper donk his head, and jeans guy made it into the mandelorian. So it's not like current high-budget movies are perfect, the errors just happen to be bound by physics for the moment.

@robm I agree that there's a huge difference between the original and recent star wars movies and it will be a major problem in the resolution of this market

A generative AI Star Wars game doesn't seem too far fetched

https://x.com/kimmonismus/status/1944140252937171346?t=p6fB6bFnSUvDTFc_5i53wQ&s=19

There are already a bunch of shitty AI movies on social media.

bought Ṁ50,000 NO

Can't wrap my head around how people are still getting fooled by LLMs in mid-2025. From the start, it's been slop and nothing but slop all the way down.

Now the whole society has to pay LLM tax on all written communication. What a waste.

@skibidist you're incorrigible

bought Ṁ500 YES

@ZaneMiller That was not even created with a single prompt, nor with a single AI.

@ZaneMiller definitely showing the medium term promise of generative AI as a

major element within the content and even cinema creation pipelines.

Doesn’t make this market on track to resolve yes of course, as David Bolin rightly pointed out.

bought Ṁ50 YES

@ZaneMiller Each individual scene is super impressive, but there is not a single shot longer than 5 seconds in that entire 2:18 video. For all the hype and "exponential progress" talk, this has been the case since they announced Sora 1.5 years ago. Can't make a video longer than 10s without weird shit happening in it.

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