Will there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling?

Question

I will average the FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin and RealClearPolitics averages and compare them against the national generic congressional vote, excluding districts where one candidate was running unopposed.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 39% chance (2 traders, as of Apr 7, 2026).

People are also trading

Related questions