Will any US Senate candidate lead the polling average by 5% or more and lose?
8
Ṁ1kṀ922Nov 30
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https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model
Resolves YES if in any 2026 US Senate election on the Silver Bulletin average, a candidate leads the final polling average for their race by 5.00% or more and loses.
The final polling average on silver bulletin will be used.
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Market was 40% when I bet. I calculate ~19%. Since 2010, one Senate candidate led the average by 5+ and lost: North Dakota 2012, barely polled. Even 2020's huge polling miss didn't do it. Today's 5–8 point leads each need a big error in exactly the right direction. Humans remember upsets, not their rarity. NO. https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2026-senate-polls/
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