Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if there is a difference of three percentage points or more between the final 'RCP Average' polling margin and the national popular vote margin at the 2026 elections for the United States House of Representatives.

Clarifications

The 'RCP Average' polling margin will be supplied by the 2026 Generic Congressional Vote page on the RealClearPolling website (see the 'spread' column).

The national popular vote margin is the margin (in percentage points) between the Democratic and Republican parties.

A difference of 'three percentage points or more' must not be a difference that merely rounds up to three percentage points. For example:

• If the final polling margin is Democrats +4.3 and the popular vote margin is Democrats +1.6, the difference of 2.7 percentage points will not be sufficient for a YES resolution.

• If the final polling margin is Republicans +1.4 and the popular vote margin is Democrats +2.0, the difference of 3.4 percentage points will be sufficient for a YES resolution.

I will not trade in this market.