Will any US Senate candidate lead the polling average by 8% or more and lose?
7
Ṁ1kṀ534Nov 30
9%
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https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model
Resolves YES if in any 2026 US Senate election on the Silver Bulletin average, a candidate leads the final polling average for their race by 8.00% or more and loses.
The final polling average on silver bulletin will be used.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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