Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to Yes if, between November 3, 2026, and January 31, 2027, inclusive, at least one of the following conditions is met:

1. Formal Lawsuits: A candidate for U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives, or Governor in the 2026 midterm elections, or a major national political party committee (such as the DNC or RNC, or their state-level equivalents), files a lawsuit in a state or federal court alleging systemic, widespread, or outcome-altering election fraud, voter fraud, or election rigging in a 2026 midterm race. (Standard recount petitions or procedural challenges regarding ballot-counting rules that do not explicitly allege fraud or rigging do not qualify.)

2. Refusal to Concede with Fraud Claims: At least one major-party candidate (Democrat or Republican) for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, or Governor refuses to concede their election for at least 14 days after Election Day (November 3, 2026) while publicly alleging that election or voter fraud altered the outcome.

3. Official Investigations: A state Attorney General, state election board, or federal agency (such as the Department of Justice) officially announces a formal investigation into allegations of outcome-altering or widespread fraud in a 2026 midterm race.

If none of these conditions are met by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on January 31, 2027, the market will resolve to No.

The market will resolve based on reports from reputable national news outlets (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters, or Bloomberg) and verified court filings.

Background

The 2026 United States midterm elections are scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2026, determining control of the House of Representatives and Class II Senate seats. Rhetoric surrounding election integrity, voter access, and state-level voting procedures remains a central theme in national discourse. In July 2026, political sparring intensified following a federal search of a Georgia election center, highlighting ongoing tensions over the security and administration of the upcoming vote. This market tracks whether the immediate post-election period of the 2026 midterms will bring high-profile, formal challenges based on claims of widespread fraud.

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