This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT), the Islamic Republic of Iran is no longer the governing regime of Iran.
This includes scenarios in which the regime is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern, and a fundamentally different system replaces it. Qualifying scenarios may include:
Revolution
Civil war
Military coup
Voluntary abdication of power
Establishment of a new constitutional order, provisional government, or revolutionary authority
To qualify, there must be a broad consensus among credible international media (e.g. Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT) that the core institutions of the Islamic Republic—such as the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC under clerical control—have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced, and that the regime has lost sovereign authority over the majority of the population within Iran.
Update 2026-03-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Both conditions must be met for YES resolution:
The core institutions of the Islamic Republic (Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC under clerical control) must be dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced AND
The regime must have lost sovereign authority over the majority of the population
Example of NO resolution: A Syrian civil war-style scenario where the regime still exists but no longer controls the entire country would resolve NO, because the regime institutions remain intact even if territorial control is reduced.
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I created a market for whether Iran will become more authoritarian in 2026, because a regime change isn't always a good thing: https://manifold.markets/PlasmaPower/will-iran-become-more-authoritarian-0qhugPqPdQ?r=UGxhc21hUG93ZXI
I would be happy if my NO lost: Twitter:
A senior IDF military official: "The Americans didn’t believe we would succeed in the decapitation strike. We destroyed between 160–190 launchers, disabled another 200, and around 150 remain active. The missile crews are afraid to go out; there are desertions and refusals to follow orders. Every day we hunt down several launchers. We’ve entered a perhaps unheroic and monotonic stage of systematic destruction of command and control headquarters, military industry, and nuclear infrastructure. The Iranians have over 10,000 dead and wounded among their security forces. What is likely to follow after the war is a weakened regime, an economic blockade, diplomatic isolation, and eventually a revolution. The situation matches what we anticipated."
There's been a lot of hopium from semiotic that trump is looking for an off ramp (first time mentioned On the second day of the war https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/will-irans-regime-fall-in-2026#vmlsgysmmv)
Trump chickening out of Tariffs combine with not natively speaking Trumpish broke a lot of peoples brains.
Here's an exercise:
Trump said the Iran war could end soon but added he’ll know it’s over “when I feel it in my bones.”
Translate that to english, calculators are allowed
@FergusArgyll i really don't find it very interesting to argue about but he clearly is searching for an exit and there is a lot of reporting that says exactly this! a world where you take trump's words seriously rather than being largely vibes signaling sounds like quite a scary one. in the last war he demanded their unconditional surrender one week before making a ceasefire. and even trump this morning casted doubt on regime change
@FergusArgyll You've got 60% of your net worth uninvested, and it seems like your credence is higher than the current probability, sounds like its the perfect opportunity to buy some YES!
@Balasar sometimes when people make a case for their position it’s not because the market price doesn’t match their credence but because they want to persuade others to buy YES/NO so that they can sell.
1) I think this is the most I've ever invested in a market, I'm a conservative guy (lower case c) I physically can't invest all my money on one security in real or fake life, what can I do...
2) Whether the regime will fall is not what I was discussing - I was making fun of semiotic for thinking the war will be over after one day when clearly it's continuing
According to The Wall Street Journal, Israel’s attacks on the Iranian repression apparatus have relied on intelligence received from ordinary Iranian citizens about the locations of Basij positions. Citizens pass on information about targets, which are then struck by Israeli drones. If this continues into the next phase of the war, it goes without saying that a protest movement with air support is far more likely to succeed.
- Amit Segal
In a news conference on Thursday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel appeared to scale back his rhetoric about the potential for regime overthrow in Iran. “We are creating the optimal conditions for the overthrow of the regime,” he said, “but I can’t say for certain that the Iranian people would topple it. A regime is toppled from within.”
@SemioticRivalry yeah he's right *if* neither Israel or the US decide to put significant boots on the ground. I'm not convinced their chances of success by bombardment are remotely as plausible as he suggests however. Foreign airstrikes have a way of instilling terror in a population and galvanizing unity even with internal critics.
@Stralor Listening to this flip-flop bedazzled Pat Scott on anything of importance is not doing it for me tonight!
videos and reports of low-level IRGC and Basij members abandoning posts and filming resignation-style messages. Conscripts, junior Basij, saying the regime is collapsing. https://x.com/TheIranWatcher/status/2031491048384639455
Relatively trivial for US military to take and hold Kharg Island. Iran regime cannot close Hormuz for more than 14-28 days. US can take Kharg Island foreever. This would defund IRGC of 80-90% of oil exports. Tough for regime to make payroll after that happens. In a May 23, 1988, print interview The Guardian ( by Polly Toynbee while Trump was promoting The Art of the Deal), he was asked about Iran "I’d be harsh on Iran. They’ve been beating us psychologically, making us look a bunch of fools. One bullet shot at one of our men or ships and I’d do a number on Kharg Island. I’d go in and take it. Iran can’t even beat Iraq, yet they push the United States around. It’d be good for the world to take them on"
No Navy, no missile launchers, no missile factories, 90% less money for IRGC. Some funding and support to Kurds, Baluch, Arabs, Azeris, disgruntled Persians. Security apparatus and military degraded (police stations, barracks, weapon stores etc...). 80-90% of what is needed. Last 10-20% is get uranium and get inspectors into Iran. IF Trump stops/pauses to negotiate after taking Kharg island and pausing to negotiate 100-200 leaders dead. Mossad not stopping until regime is gone. Would this last 9 more months if it did not already collapse?
@brianwang the Kharg island drama seems dumb af
"Yeah Iran doesn't have a Navy so we have no issue taking Kharg island and removing the regime's funding!"
Sure yeah there's no Iran Navy anymore, but did everyone conveniently forget that Kharg island is reachable by Iran mainland's missiles? You really think US military troops will occupy Kharg and become fish in a barrel?
@Balasar Later, he has now said, "we have won in many ways, but not enough. We go forward more determined than ever to achieve ultimate victory that will end this long-running danger once and for all." - here comes the wavering, prevaricating, and inevitable declaration of victory before we leave the chaos for someone else to fix.
@Balasar Even if it ends at that, bombing shithole countries is a worthwhile endeavour. Not optimal, but fine.
@jim @skibidist mowing the lawn...and then not sweeping up the grass so it likely spreads and starts growing elsewhere.
@draaglom Considering it's pretty much free for he US, any benefit makes it worthwhile. Here we have:
- corrupting influence rolled back, so Jews will have some years to work with Arabs on making business and building cool things, and Lebanon has some chance to become a normal country even if they lack the balls to do it
- moral satisfaction that comes from killing bad people
- military kept well trained and prepared (like seems they are learning to deal with drones as apparently you need real casualties for the bureaucracy to move)
- an option that Iran becomes neutral or US-aligned; huge impact down the century if it happens
- reduced chance shithole countries take the piss in future negotiations
@skibidist free? It might actually be profitable for the US since US oil production is pretty high these days.
Reg your 2nd point - I don't think morality really enters into it.
It's just the usual 'us vs them' as evidenced by your other points.
@xenophon13 Are the IRGC bad people for defending their traditional allies and the republic against genocidaires?
@skibidist you want it to happen because of your ideological preferences and so you think it will happen. Low decoupling.
@skibidist thanks for explaining your thinking!
In what sense do you mean that it's "pretty much free" - is this a "the marginal costs are small relative to the US economy" argument, a "the missiles/soldiers/ships are already paid for" argument, or something else?
@Chumchulum Muh ancestral lands. They are bad people to me because they don't contribute to building tech stuff and going to space. Jews do contribute a lot and I appreciate that. You are free to impose your own value system which may say otherwise, but you must impose it by force because that's how correct views are established. There is nothing objective in anything.
@MachiNi Irrelevant under solipsism.
@draaglom the first one, budget is $7T and this would cost maybe $0.3T if it lasted one year? nothing compared to money wasted on wealth transfers and such.
@draaglom Iran attacking GCC has strengthened middle east coalition with the US. 80% missiles and missiles launchers gone, missile factories gone, nuclear program hit again, 50+ hardliners gone, maybe 100, Take Kharg island to control oil to defund IRGC and control oil exports to China. GCC exports, Iran exports, venezuela exports only leave Russia. In 1-2 weeks, no missile launchers left, drone factories degraded, Kharg island taken, Hormuz fully open and Saudi pipeline spun up. The only negotiation the 101st guy in the leadership can offer is giving up uranium and letting in inspectors. If 101 does not agree... then dead and we talk to 102 etc... IF they had gotten a nuke then they could hold Hormuz and extort $140 billion per year. We prevent $140 billion per year in extortion and we can force them to pay. A $5-10 billion per year base prevents $140+ billion per year in costs. Plus they would use the $140 billion per year to fund 10-100X the terrorism.