If Iran's regime falls in 2026, will it be a surprise? | Manifold

If Iran's regime falls in 2026, will it be a surprise?

1

Ṁ1kṀ5

Dec 31

10%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

-Resolves N/A if Iran's regime does NOT fall in 2026.

-Resolves Yes if Iran's regime falls, and during the previous day (ET timezone) the highest price for the market below is <= 50%.

-Otherwise resolves No.

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