Resolution criteria

This market resolves based on the total number of Iranians killed by the Iranian regime during 2026, as documented by credible international human rights organizations including Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, the UN Human Rights Office, and the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), or at the very least the sum of hospital reports coming from Iran. The regime shut down internet and is trying to supress information, so I will consider semi-conservative estimates: hospital counts, hospital estimates reported by multiple of its workers or decently reliable sources, for example. Wild guesstimates/extrapolations won't count. Deaths include executions, extrajudicial killings, and killings during security force crackdowns on protests, but any death reported during this time may be considered in case of imprecise information. The resolution will use the most comprehensive count available from these organizations/sources by year-end 2026, prioritizing figures that have been independently verified and cross-referenced across multiple sources.

Background

Iran carried out at least 1,922 executions in 2025, more than twice the number recorded the previous year, according to the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), with executions rising by 106% compared with 2024. The 376 executions in December 2025 were unprecedented in the last 37 years. Beyond judicial executions, at least 217 protesters were killed in Tehran alone on January 8, 2026, as protests erupted on December 28, 2025 following a sharp currency collapse, with demonstrations quickly spreading nationwide and calling for the downfall of the Islamic Republic system.

Considerations

The Iranian regime's killing of civilians occurs through multiple mechanisms: formal executions (often after unfair trials), extrajudicial killings during security force operations, and deaths during protest crackdowns. Iran's Judiciary Chief called for a decisive response against protesters "without leniency," with concerns that such statements significantly increase the risk of enforced disappearances, mass arbitrary detentions, and the issuance and execution of harsh sentences, including the death penalty. Additionally, internet shutdowns in Iran have limited reporting on casualties, meaning actual figures may be substantially higher than documented counts.

I encourage traders to post sources on the comments and discuss their reliability, your input will be greatly appreciated and also possibly considered during the resolution. The purpose is aggregating people's beliefs, the numbers thrown around and arrive at a decently accurate picture on what's really happening (and expected to happen). Before any trades happen, I can tighten the resolution criteria on demand, just comment.