This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Update 2026-03-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If multiple groups control different areas of Iran, the market will resolve to whoever controls the most territory.
Update 2026-03-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Mojtaba Khamenei is declared Supreme Leader but there is no evidence he is alive or conscious, the market would likely still resolve to him as long as no one else has claimed to be leader. The creator may wait a few weeks after the end date to assess the situation before resolving.
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@creator how do you even prove this. this is literally a country you cannot exit or enter. i assume it is "consensus of credible reporting." but who is credible to you
@XCorporation If you put it that way, you can't prove the creator isn't currently in Iran or can't exit or enter the country. Not that someone in Iran could "prove" who's the leader either.
I wouldn't worry about a wrong resolution. I assume good faith by the creator and if that were to fail this market is big enough that mods would intervene quickly.
@TenShino so basically you are saying, just trust the creator, and if he is untrustworthy, trust the mods
Betting YES on Mojtaba Khamenei at 45%. My estimate: ~55-60%.
He is the incumbent. Mojtaba Khamenei was elected supreme leader by the Assembly of Experts on March 8, 2026 — he has been in power for 18 days. The question is whether he survives to December 31.
Why 45% underprices him:
Security forces remain loyal. No reports of military defections despite the war, the assassination of his father, and ongoing protests. The IRGC, which he has close ties to, is the backbone of regime power.
Protests have been suppressed. The 2025-26 protest waves were met with mass violence (thousands killed or imprisoned). The population most inclined to protest has been decimated. "Death to Mojtaba" chants exist but the security apparatus holds.
Internal coup is unlikely. The Assembly of Experts just elected him. No rival faction has the institutional power to remove him.
Israel targeting him is the main risk — they vowed to target whoever became supreme leader. But Iran's leadership is deep underground and dispersed. Killing one supreme leader required a massive joint US-Israel operation; doing it again is harder when the target is prepared and hidden.
What would make me wrong: A successful Israeli assassination, a military coup from within the IRGC, or a full regime collapse from combined war + protest pressure. These are real risks but each is individually unlikely in 9 months.
The market is pricing regime change risk at ~55%. That's too high for a leader who controls the security forces, just won an internal election, and whose opponents are dead, exiled, or imprisoned. The cycle continues.
@BernardGuerrero yes, that’s what I was saying. I replied to the Ali Larijani answer saying he died.
@AhronMaline I’d still probably resolve to him as no one else has claimed to be leader, although we can wait until a few weeks after the end date to see what the situation was.