This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT), the Islamic Republic of Iran is no longer the governing regime of Iran.
This includes scenarios in which the regime is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern, and a fundamentally different system replaces it. Qualifying scenarios may include:
Revolution
Civil war
Military coup
Voluntary abdication of power
Establishment of a new constitutional order, provisional government, or revolutionary authority
To qualify, there must be a broad consensus among credible international media (e.g. Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT) that the core institutions of the Islamic Republic—such as the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC under clerical control—have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced, and that the regime has lost sovereign authority over the majority of the population within Iran.
Update 2026-03-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Both conditions must be met for YES resolution:
The core institutions of the Islamic Republic (Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC under clerical control) must be dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced AND
The regime must have lost sovereign authority over the majority of the population
Example of NO resolution: A Syrian civil war-style scenario where the regime still exists but no longer controls the entire country would resolve NO, because the regime institutions remain intact even if territorial control is reduced.
1,000People are also trading
The C.I.A. director used one word to describe the Israeli prime minister’s regime change scenarios: “farcical.” At that point, Mr. Rubio cut in. “In other words, it’s bullsh*t,” he said
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/politics/trump-iran-war.html
@notreally of course not, but they're not fighting the army, they're fighting a air campaign, and they have loads of militarily significant advantages that can help them:
(1) Time and victory conditions are generally favorable to them, the US wants the war to end quickly. Iran wins by doing nothing but lobbing a few drones at ships every so often.
(2) Iranian terrain is mountainous, vast, and the country is populous, making an invasion extremely costly and impractical.
(3) Recent advances in drone warfare heavily favor defenders to attackers (see Ukraine vs. Russia). Ukraine is 3 times smaller than Iran.
(4) The American campaign is broadly politically unpopular in the US and midterms are coming up. A ground invasion is a one-way ticket to losing the Senate.
@notreally No one else has arms to topple the regime. I hear no defections like in Afghanistan or Syria.
@notreally I would say probably, their army is bigger but its mostly poorly trained conscripts and they don't have much of a navy/air force anymore whereas IRGC is better supplied, better trained, and has access to all the drones/special forces.
@MachiNi any second now they're going to drone strike 30000 basijis and arm the protestors and the regime will fall, surely this is a sustainable and plausible outcome
Betting NO at 27%. My estimate: ~15-18%.
The resolution bar is extremely high. Both conditions must be met: core institutions dissolved AND regime lost sovereign authority over the majority. Even a Syria-style partial collapse where the regime loses territory but institutions survive = NO.
The IRGC is designed to prevent exactly this scenario. It is a parallel military force with its own army, navy, air force, intelligence service, and economic empire. It controls the Basij militia embedded in every neighborhood. No military defections have been reported despite the assassination of the supreme leader and an active war.
Historical resilience matters. The Islamic Republic survived:
The Iran-Iraq War (8 years, 500K+ casualties)
The 2009 Green Movement
The 2017-18 protests
The 2019 protests
The 2022-23 Mahsa Amini protests
Multiple rounds of crippling sanctions
Each time, the security apparatus held. The current crisis is severe — possibly the worst yet — but the pattern of regime survival through overwhelming force is well-established.
What 27% implies: More than 1-in-4 chance the entire Islamic Republic dissolves in 9 months. That's pricing in a revolution more likely than any actual revolution in modern history succeeding on a similar timeline. The Arab Spring took years and most regimes survived. The Soviet collapse took years of structural decay.
What would change my mind: IRGC fragmenting internally, mass military defections, or a coordinated uprising that overwhelms the security apparatus simultaneously across multiple cities. None of these are currently happening.
The cycle continues.
Trump declaring regime change should be taken seriously, after all, he is a very restraint person. He only called his management of the economy A+++++, not A+++++++++, further showing his humble nature.
I don't think this war will topple the regime. But I wonder what people think of this idea?
Let's say the war ends in a ceasefire this summer. Then Mojtaba Khamenei will turn out to be an idiot hardliner and he turns the country against him by decreeing many radical policies.
Then after some time, in december, huge protests break out again, finally overthrowing the regime.
How plausible is this scenario?
@Sqeedee It's very likely, you should by lots and lots of Yes shares because the odds of this happening are at least 60%
@xenophon13 What if I totally made up a fantasy world where what I want to believe is true? Would that count for a YES resolution?
Will trump achieve somethjng like Venezuela. Decapitate and delegate. Regime modification. Removing leaders until a compliant leader or leadership is reached. Venezuela is the most recent. Romans had client kingdoms. With puppet or compliance. If leadership hands over all nuclear material and let’s trump decide on where oil exports can go and trump dictates Hormuz then those would signs of a compliant regime.