This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT), the Islamic Republic of Iran is no longer the governing regime of Iran.
This includes scenarios in which the regime is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern, and a fundamentally different system replaces it. Qualifying scenarios may include:
Revolution
Civil war
Military coup
Voluntary abdication of power
Establishment of a new constitutional order, provisional government, or revolutionary authority
To qualify, there must be a broad consensus among credible international media (e.g. Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT) that the core institutions of the Islamic Republic—such as the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC under clerical control—have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced, and that the regime has lost sovereign authority over the majority of the population within Iran.
Update 2026-03-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Both conditions must be met for YES resolution:
The core institutions of the Islamic Republic (Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC under clerical control) must be dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced AND
The regime must have lost sovereign authority over the majority of the population
Example of NO resolution: A Syrian civil war-style scenario where the regime still exists but no longer controls the entire country would resolve NO, because the regime institutions remain intact even if territorial control is reduced.
1,000People are also trading
WSJ article ("Israel Is Hunting Down Iranian Regime Members in Their Hideouts, One by One") Mossad has been directly calling Iranian security officials and field commanders by name. They warn them and their families to side with any popular uprising against the regime—or face assassination like senior leaders. The paper reviewed recordings of these calls as part of Israel's broader campaign.
Larijani’s removal- Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said: Netanyahu is now focused on blocking Trump’s pathways for a ceasefire and follow-up talks with Iran. Larijani would have been the man to get that job done. USS Tripoli 7 days at full speed. Has the 2500 marines and right gear that would enable taking the Hormuz islands (Abu Musa, Greater/Lesser Tunb, and/or Kharg).
U.S. intelligence says Iran’s regime is consolidating power
Western officials and analysts who study Iran said they see little near-term prospect of a “regime change” end to the 47-year-old Islamic republic or the rise of a more democratic government. The latter is a goal cited by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and sometimes by President Donald Trump, who has said he’ll know the war is over “when I feel it in my bones.”
U.S. intelligence assessments issued since the war began predict Iran’s regime will remain intact and possibly even emboldened, believing it stood up to Trump and survived, according to two people familiar with the assessments, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the issue’s sensitivity. U.S. Arab allies in the Persian Gulf, meanwhile, are angered and alarmed at being the targets of retaliatory barrages of Iranian ballistic missiles and drones.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/03/16/iran-regime-intelligence-irgc-war/
New market for other nations that might assist in forcibly opening the Strait of Hormuz. Curious about whether this is something that would ever happen: https://manifold.markets/Balasar/which-countries-will-assist-militar
I created a market for whether Iran will become more authoritarian in 2026, because a regime change isn't always a good thing: https://manifold.markets/PlasmaPower/will-iran-become-more-authoritarian-0qhugPqPdQ?r=UGxhc21hUG93ZXI
I would be happy if my NO lost: Twitter:
A senior IDF military official: "The Americans didn’t believe we would succeed in the decapitation strike. We destroyed between 160–190 launchers, disabled another 200, and around 150 remain active. The missile crews are afraid to go out; there are desertions and refusals to follow orders. Every day we hunt down several launchers. We’ve entered a perhaps unheroic and monotonic stage of systematic destruction of command and control headquarters, military industry, and nuclear infrastructure. The Iranians have over 10,000 dead and wounded among their security forces. What is likely to follow after the war is a weakened regime, an economic blockade, diplomatic isolation, and eventually a revolution. The situation matches what we anticipated."
There's been a lot of hopium from semiotic that trump is looking for an off ramp (first time mentioned On the second day of the war https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/will-irans-regime-fall-in-2026#vmlsgysmmv)
Trump chickening out of Tariffs combine with not natively speaking Trumpish broke a lot of peoples brains.
Here's an exercise:
Trump said the Iran war could end soon but added he’ll know it’s over “when I feel it in my bones.”
Translate that to english, calculators are allowed
@FergusArgyll i really don't find it very interesting to argue about but he clearly is searching for an exit and there is a lot of reporting that says exactly this! a world where you take trump's words seriously rather than being largely vibes signaling sounds like quite a scary one. in the last war he demanded their unconditional surrender one week before making a ceasefire. and even trump this morning casted doubt on regime change
@FergusArgyll You've got 60% of your net worth uninvested, and it seems like your credence is higher than the current probability, sounds like its the perfect opportunity to buy some YES!
@Balasar sometimes when people make a case for their position it’s not because the market price doesn’t match their credence but because they want to persuade others to buy YES/NO so that they can sell.
1) I think this is the most I've ever invested in a market, I'm a conservative guy (lower case c) I physically can't invest all my money on one security in real or fake life, what can I do...
2) Whether the regime will fall is not what I was discussing - I was making fun of semiotic for thinking the war will be over after one day when clearly it's continuing
According to The Wall Street Journal, Israel’s attacks on the Iranian repression apparatus have relied on intelligence received from ordinary Iranian citizens about the locations of Basij positions. Citizens pass on information about targets, which are then struck by Israeli drones. If this continues into the next phase of the war, it goes without saying that a protest movement with air support is far more likely to succeed.
- Amit Segal
In a news conference on Thursday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel appeared to scale back his rhetoric about the potential for regime overthrow in Iran. “We are creating the optimal conditions for the overthrow of the regime,” he said, “but I can’t say for certain that the Iranian people would topple it. A regime is toppled from within.”
@SemioticRivalry yeah he's right *if* neither Israel or the US decide to put significant boots on the ground. I'm not convinced their chances of success by bombardment are remotely as plausible as he suggests however. Foreign airstrikes have a way of instilling terror in a population and galvanizing unity even with internal critics.
@Stralor Listening to this flip-flop bedazzled Pat Scott on anything of importance is not doing it for me tonight!