Trump already floating off-ramps from the war within hours of starting it and saying that it's the responsibility of the Iranian people to change the regime. A lot of Iranian leaders survived and are going through the constitutional process to choose a new Supreme Leader. Celebrations of Khameneis death were suppressed by live fire from Basij. Not really sure why people think this is going to happen.

ewf

rgerg

Yeah keep putting infinite no orders on unrealistically low probabilities and losing money.

@HenriConfucius

Supreme leader is dead. IRGC heavily decapitated — Commander Pakpour dead, multiple top generals and intelligence chiefs killed. Many rank-and-file and mid-level commanders reportedly “looking for immunity” and unwilling to fight

@brianwang

https://xcancel.com/PressTV/status/2027918822913491294

@ChurlishGambit https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Khamenei

There’s a awful lot of magical thinking on YES imo. We have about two weeks of munitions to do this with before we run out of interceptors. Trump is already waffling - doesn’t have the political will to see this through. He just wants a quick victory lap but to actually dislodge the regime requires a slog.

@Balasar nononono

This is a regime change operation. A fully planned regime change operation.

After US & Israel believes they took out enough of the government and their capabilities (1 - 2 weeks), there will be a massive psyop, tv will be hacked, riots will be agitated for etc etc.

@Balasar

Al Jazeera is reporting that Trump is saying that he might be done here.

I can go long and take over the whole thing, or end it in two or three days and tell the Iranians: 'See you again in a few years if you start rebuilding'

Khamenei dead. The only way this resolves NO is if a IRGC insider becomes a puppet US is happy with. The question then is how this will market will resolve.

There's no chance this ends until US & Israel are happy with the gov

@FergusArgyll what? the "only way this resolves NO"?!?!? There are sooo many ways this could resolve NO other than that.

-US happy with diminished Iranian nuclear capabilities and stops unilaterally, leaving Iran to pick up the pieces.

-Iranian leadership agrees to nuclear concessions.

-Prolonged conflict with no resolution for the next 10 months.

-IRGC successor more favorable to the US appointed.

@bens

1. This isn't about current nuclear capabilities. What happens if they rebuild in 3 months? The whole point of this operation is not to have to strike every 6 months

2. Current Iranian leadership obviously prefers war. This operation was very very obvious to everyone (including manifold, the surprise was the exact date) and yet they didn;t even try to negotiate. A new leader who would agree to all demands, is my scenario

3. Yeah, good luck with that. US & Israel have air superiority within 10 hours. There's no way this lasts 10 months

4. That's what I said!

   if a IRGC insider becomes a puppet US is happy with

Israel claims https://x.com/FaytuksNetwork/status/2027739480304574694?s=20

Khameni has been nenutralised

Semiotic sweating right now

@skibidist doubt it

@bens would you bet on it

@skibidist ya

"In his taped remarks, President Trump urged the Iranian people to “take over your government” once the military action is completed.

“This will be probably your only chance for generations,” he said. “For many years, you have asked for America’s help, but you never got it. No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a president who is giving you what you want, so let’s see how you respond."

-NYT

48% on Polymarket!

Up to 52% on polymarket

Le Figaro reports an attempted coup led by former President Hassan Rouhani around Jan 8th