Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to Yes if, between the time of this market's creation and August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, any of the following events occur in Iran:

1. Change in Supreme Leadership: Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to hold the office of Supreme Leader of Iran (due to death, resignation, ouster, or incapacitation) and is succeeded by another individual, or the office of Supreme Leader is officially abolished.

2. Change in Presidency: Masoud Pezeshkian ceases to hold the office of President of Iran (due to death, resignation, impeachment, or ouster).

3. Regime Overthrow or Systemic Change: The official governing system of Iran (the Islamic Republic) is overthrown, dissolved, or replaced; or a new constitution is formally adopted that fundamentally alters the governing structure of the country (e.g., abolishing the theocratic system).

If none of these specific events are officially confirmed by credible global news agencies (such as Reuters, Associated Press, Al Jazeera, or BBC) to have occurred prior to September 1, 2026, the market will resolve to No.

Note: Political changes or leadership transitions that occurred prior to the creation of this market (such as the succession of Mojtaba Khamenei in March 2026) do not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

Background

Iran has experienced significant political upheaval in 2026. Following the assassination of former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026, during joint U.S.-Israeli strikes, the Assembly of Experts named his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new Supreme Leader on March 9, 2026.

Masoud Pezeshkian, who took office in July 2024, remains the country's president. In June 2026, Iran and the United States signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) intended to frame peace negotiations, but ongoing regional strikes and intense internal factional friction continue to pressure the Iranian political elite, with hardline elements increasingly utilizing the president as a scapegoat for diplomatic failures. This market assesses whether this volatility will manifest in further major, structural leadership or regime transitions before September 2026.

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