When will Manifold reach 80% confidence on the main market for who won the election?
Basic
4
Ṁ652Nov 7
8%
November 5, 7 PM EST - 8 PM EST
14%
November 5, 8 PM EST - 9 PM EST
8%
November 5, 9 PM EST - 10 PM EST
8%
November 5, 10 PM EST - 11 PM EST
8%
November 5, 11 PM EST - 12 AM EST
8%
November 6, 12 AM EST - 1 AM EST
7%
November 6, 1 AM EST - 2 AM EST
6%
November 6, 2 AM EST - 3 AM EST
5%
November 6, 3 AM EST - 4 AM EST
10%
Any other time on November 6
18%
November 7 or later
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A few questions:
Since only one answer can resolve Yes, I guess you're asking when the market first reaches 80% confidence?
If it happens before 7pm tonight, does it N/A?
Is a single trade enough, or does it need to stay at 80% for any specific amount of time?
Is this the main market you're referring to? https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-trump-win-the-2024-election
@yetforever Yes, yes, yes and yes. (For #3, I doubt any whales are going to manipulate the market to earn 100 mana lol)
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