How Many States Will Manifold Correctly Predict During the 2024 Presidential Election?
➕
Plus
32
Ṁ6763
resolved Nov 12
100%98.5%
47
0.3%
45 or less
0.2%
46
0.4%
48
0.3%
49
0.2%
50

Using the individual state markets at https://manifold.markets/politics

Using the odds for each state at 11:59 PM PST on November 4, 2024.

Resolves to the exact number of states in which the Manifold favorite in each state received a plurality of the popular vote in the Presidential Election.

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bought Ṁ350 47 YES

Why was this so high for 45 or less. Isn't it very clear now that this will be 47? The only 3 where the winner was not the favorite from the map below are WI, MI and PA, no?

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Trump currently leading in three Manifold blue states!

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Election results coming in!

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Final Manifold map! PA is democratic and NV is republican if that was unclear. Election day is today (EST)!
@traders

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Two days to go! See Manifold predictions here: https://manifold.markets/election

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Exactly one more week until election day!

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Election day upcoming!

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debate bump

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Only a few months left

Kamala bump

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Vance selection

opened a Ṁ100 48 YES at 20% order

Limit orders on YES placed at 49 and 50, if you're interested @Daniel_MC.

By the way @vibhav I really like this market. Would you mind if I create a numeric version of it (of course you can too)? Think that it would be cool but don't want to steal your idea!

@mint I’m glad you like it! Go ahead!

@vibhav awesome, this is the numeric market version. I credited this market in the description!

opened a Ṁ20 50 NO at 10% order

Got some limit orders up

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