When will the ManifoldPolitics/will-trump-win-the-2024-election market 1st be either > 90% or < 10%?
Plus
4
แน925Jan 1
5%
before 11:59 05/11/2024
25%
before 11:59 06/11/2024
14%
before 11:59 10/11/2024
35%
before 11:59 30/11/2024
20%
after 11:59 31/12/2024
Measured by GMT which is Eastern Standard Time + 5 hours. Options are exclusive so for example if the original market is resolved on 06/11/2024 only option 2 "before 11:59 06/11/2024" resolves yes, not options 3 or 4.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
When will Manifold reach 80% confidence on the main market for who won the election?
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?
51% chance
How accurately will Manifold predict the 2024 Presidential Election?
In which months will Trump's odds of winning be sustained above 50%?
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?
48% chance
If Trump posts a screenshot/link to Manifold, will the 2024 US Presidential Election swing by more than 10% within 24h?
56% chance
Will Manifold be more accurate than Polymarket in forecasting the 2024 election?
49% chance
Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform Polymarket's?
43% chance
When will the winner of the 2024 presidential election be statistically certain based on prediction markets?
When will the linked Manifold market on Trump winning the election leave the 25-75% range for the last time?