With 538 slowly closing its doors, this looks more likely than it did a year ago.

538 has several models --- which one will you use?

@LarsDoucet I would advocate for "whatever the default model is displayed to a new visitor to the site", but would be nice to get that confirmed @IsaacKing.

Yeah, I was planning on the default model.

@IsaacKing What probability would you say 538 had given for a state it predicted to be ">99%" likely to have a particular outcome?

@BoltonBailey keep it simple and call it 99.5

Interesting to consider how manipulable this market is. With 538-betters being profitable this last cycle, I might expect prices to be very close to 538 the day before the election. A coalition could attempt to match the manifold predictions to the 538 predictions closely and then make a single big bet on a very likely state which would then dominate the Brier score.

How will accuracy be measured?

@JakobBrunker Note this comment in a similar market by the same creator.

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition