On the eve of election day, I will note down probabilities from the most popular Manifold market for each state's presidential, senate, and house election outcomes, as well as those of Polymarkets. Territories are excluded. Races for which either lacks predictions will be excluded. Races that lack a market with at least 10 traders on either side will also be excluded. Resolves YES iff Manifold's predictions have a better Brier score.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ383 | |
| 2 | Ṁ146 | |
| 3 | Ṁ136 | |
| 4 | Ṁ96 | |
| 5 | Ṁ76 |
Pretty sure this resolves to NO. Polymarket has been the sharpest predictor this election. Even sharper than other prediction markets like Predictit, Kalshi or Betfair.
This link might aid you in the resolution, Bloomberg has been tracking Polymarket odds for President, Senate, House and others:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-us-election-results/markets/
We should collaborate on our assessment:
https://manifold.markets/benshindel/will-manifold-be-more-accurate-than?r=YmVuc2hpbmRlbA