Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform Polymarket's?
Basic
18
แน455Nov 12
45%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
On the eve of election day, I will note down probabilities from the most popular Manifold market for each state's presidential, senate, and house election outcomes, as well as those of Polymarkets. Territories are excluded. Races for which either lacks predictions will be excluded. Races that lack a market with at least 10 traders on either side will also be excluded. Resolves YES iff Manifold's predictions have a better Brier score.
Get แน1,000 play money
Sort by:
We should collaborate on our assessment:
https://manifold.markets/benshindel/will-manifold-be-more-accurate-than?r=YmVuc2hpbmRlbA
Related questions
Related questions
Will Manifold have a USD cash prize market on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election?
50% chance
Will Manifold be more accurate than Polymarket in forecasting the 2024 election?
43% chance
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?
56% chance
Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform FiveThirtyEight's?
51% chance
Will Manifold price a 2024 US recession at >50% at the end of 2024?
10% chance
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?
50% chance
What chance will Manifold give the Democratic Party on this 2024 US presidential election market on October 1?
Who will make at least one bet on Manifold during 2024?
How accurately will Manifold predict the 2024 Presidential Election?
Will the largest manifold market covering the US presidential election correctly predict the outcome of the election?
67% chance