Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform Polymarket's? | Manifold

Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform Polymarket's?

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On the eve of election day, I will note down probabilities from the most popular Manifold market for each state's presidential, senate, and house election outcomes, as well as those of Polymarkets. Territories are excluded. Races for which either lacks predictions will be excluded. Races that lack a market with at least 10 traders on either side will also be excluded. Resolves YES iff Manifold's predictions have a better Brier score.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#Manifold Track Record

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@Shump It's Resolve NO time

Please resolve

bought Ṁ525 NO

Pretty sure this resolves to NO. Polymarket has been the sharpest predictor this election. Even sharper than other prediction markets like Predictit, Kalshi or Betfair.

This link might aid you in the resolution, Bloomberg has been tracking Polymarket odds for President, Senate, House and others:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-us-election-results/markets/

We should collaborate on our assessment:

https://manifold.markets/benshindel/will-manifold-be-more-accurate-than?r=YmVuc2hpbmRlbA

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Will Manifold be more accurate than Polymarket in forecasting the 2024 election?

Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform FiveThirtyEight's?

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?

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Will the largest manifold market covering the US presidential election correctly predict the outcome of the election?

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