Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform Polymarket's?
14
109
Ṁ229Ṁ270
Nov 12
50%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
On the eve of election day, I will note down probabilities from the most popular Manifold market for each state's presidential, senate, and house election outcomes, as well as those of Polymarkets. Territories are excluded. Races for which either lacks predictions will be excluded. Races that lack a market with at least 10 traders on either side will also be excluded. Resolves YES iff Manifold's predictions have a better Brier score.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
We should collaborate on our assessment:
https://manifold.markets/benshindel/will-manifold-be-more-accurate-than?r=YmVuc2hpbmRlbA
Related questions
Will Manifold be more accurate than real-money markets in forecasting the 2024 election?
54% chance
Will Manifold Market be more popular than Kalshi during April 2024?
2% chance
Will the largest manifold market covering the US presidential election correctly predict the outcome of the election?
69% chance
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?
47% chance
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?
68% chance
Will a major newspaper cite/reference a Manifold prediction market by the 2024 election?
70% chance
Will Manifold house a prediction market service that utilizes real money trades by 2040?
66% chance
Will Manifold Markets be more popular than Polymarket by the end of 2024?
42% chance
Which Manifold User will create the most markets in 2024?