How accurately will Manifold predict the 2024 Presidential Election?
Mini
19
275
Dec 2
47
expected

This market will resolve to the amount of states Manifold correctly predicts the winner of, based on the official Manifold Markets account state markets at midnight Eastern Time before the election. If it seems like people try to significantly move markets right at midnight to game this market, those trades won't be considered.

This market will stay open until the referenced markets resolve.

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@mint - why does the scale go up to 51? Did I miss a state? Or are you counting Puerto Rico?

@LukasDay because its less than at the top bounds, not less than or equal to. That means if you want to bet 50, you buy "50 ≤ val < 51".

@mint @LukasDay it could and maybe should go to 51, since DC also takes part in the electoral college. Or rather, maybe it should go to 56, the number of jurisdictions having EVs – 50 states, DC, and Maine's 2 and Nebraska's 3 congressional districts.

This is a good point, but it's covered by the description, which only says "states". I also think this is the cleanest way to think about it, without market participants having to calculate all this. This does of course mean that the districts of Nebraska and Maine don't count for this market since they aren't states.

@mint gotcha, thank you. I think there's also space for a market covering all jurisdictions, such that it's impossible for Manifold to get 100% right and not predict the winner (which is possible with this market, especially if it's a tight race and DC's 3 Dem votes are the ones that give Biden a majority).

I'll look into creating that market.

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