How accurately will Manifold predict the 2024 Presidential Election?
19
80
Ṁ259Ṁ1k
Dec 2
48
expected
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market will resolve to the amount of states Manifold correctly predicts the winner of, based on the official Manifold Markets account state markets at midnight Eastern Time before the election. If it seems like people try to significantly move markets right at midnight to game this market, those trades won't be considered.
This market will stay open until the referenced markets resolve.
Numeric market version of this market:
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Will The Keys to the White House correctly predict the 2024 election?
62% chance
Will Manifold be more accurate than real-money markets in forecasting the 2024 election?
54% chance
What fraction of Manifold users who vote for one of the majority parties in the 2024 election will vote Republican?
15% chance
Who will make at least one bet on Manifold during 2024?
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?
47% chance
Will the largest manifold market covering the US presidential election correctly predict the outcome of the election?
69% chance
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?
60% chance
Manifold Sentiment Prediction (POTUS Election 2024)
Will a major newspaper cite/reference a Manifold prediction market by the 2024 election?
71% chance
Will Manifold crash during America's election night/morning?
63% chance