Will PredictIt's lawsuit against the CFTC be successful? (2023)
38
582
1.3K
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Background: Unpredictable Future of Political Prediction Markets / Why I'm Suing the Federal Government over PredictIt

Resolves YES if the PredictIt's suit is resolved before the end of 2023 and "allow[s] all existing markets to resolve in an orderly manner past February 2023"

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Anyone got a 2024+ version of this market handy?

bought Ṁ500 of NO

@SG So, if the current state did not change before the end of the year, would it resolve NO because "suit is resolved before the end of 2023" is a NO? Or would it be YES because "allow[s] all existing markets to resolve in an orderly manner past February 2023" is a YES currently due to a preliminary injunction.

My literal reading would be NO because the text says "if the PredictIt's suit is resolved before the end of 2023 and"

But that deadline seems very arbitrary and clearly it has been successful so far.

(Again, this is all talking about a hypothetical where nothing changes by the end of the year)

predicted NO

@jack I think what I was going for when I created this question was to address whether the lawsuit would be resolved favorably to PredictIt this year. So I am inclined to resolve NO if the lawsuit has not been resolved before the end of the year. I think I'll modify the question to include the year 2023.

Not my best market.

sold Ṁ96 of YES

@SG 😢

How does the market resolve if existing markets alone are allowed to wind down as their events do or don't occur? IIRC there's like 4 markets left and they all almost certainly resolve by 2025-02-01. (Edit: forgot about inaugurations I guess???)

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Wow, looking at the percentage I was surprised to see that virtually every bet is NO.

Both of those links go to the same page

predicted NO

@Yev fixed!