
Will Polymarket get investigated by the CFTC again before 2027?
Will Polymarket get investigated by the CFTC again before 2027?
13
1kṀ12882027
51%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Polymarket take more steps to verify that US citizens are not trading on their website before July 1, 2025?
29% chance
When will the CFTC take action against Polymarket?
Will Polymarket become legal and regulated in the US in 2025?
20% chance
US state/federal regulatory apparatus takes another action against Polymarket before January 1, 2026
48% chance
Will Polymarket take more steps to verify that US citizens are not trading on their website before January 1, 2026?
45% chance
When will a major new policy on prediction markets be released by CFTC?
Will real-money betting on Polymarket or Manifold become legal for US residents in 2025?
27% chance
Will something horrible happen to Polymarket deposits by 2030?
Will Polymarket create a Token in the following year?
Will the CFTC file regulatory action against Manifold Markets for transactions involving the exchange of mana by 2030?
27% chance