Will PredictIt continue to have a conservative bent by end of 2028? | Manifold

Will PredictIt continue to have a conservative bent by end of 2028?

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I've heard this comment several times, and it seems odd given political biases ought to decrease performance in the context of prediction markets.

Resolves based on whether PredictIt has a conservative bent when forecasting the 2028 US presidential election relative to competitor prediction market / forecasting platforms.

Dec 12, 3:19pm: ~~Will the popular perception that PredictIt has a conservative bias persist by end of 2028?~~ → Will PredictIt continue to have a conservative bent by end of 2028?

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#🇺🇸 US Politics

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PredictIt is unlikely to survive due to the loss of the no-action letter.

@bagelman i would resolve n/a in that case

by what metric will the resolution be judged?

@L I will look at PredictIt shares for major election markets and if there is a substantial conservative leaning relative to other orgs like Manifold, Metaculus, Kalshi, etc. then I will resolve positively

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