Conditional on prediction markets becoming mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because commissioners at the CFTC changed their mind?
10
closes 2030
36%
chance

https://richardhanania.substack.com/p/how-to-legalize-prediction-markets

Will resolve N/A if prediction markets don't become mostly legal in the US by 2030.

Jan 31, 1:49am: Conditional on prediction markets becoming mostly legal in the US by 2030, is it because commissioners at the CFTC changed their mind? → Conditional on prediction markets becoming mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because commissioners at the CFTC changed their mind?

Sort by:
NoaNabeshima avatar
Noa Nabeshima

NoaNabeshima avatar
Noa Nabeshima

@NoaNabeshima

If prediction markets become mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it mostly because of a judicial ruling?
If prediction markets become mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it mostly because of a judicial ruling?
44% chance. https://richardhanania.substack.com/p/how-to-legalize-prediction-markets

Related markets

If prediction markets become mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it mostly because of a judicial ruling?44%
Will real money prediction markets become legal in the US by the end of 2025?28%
Will people care about prediction markets by 2025?26%
Will PredictIt's CFTC application to create a Regulated Exchange be approved before July 2023?14%
Will any prediction market clearly elicit knowledge about an important event that was otherwise unknown to the public before 2025?80%
Will betting in or subsidizing specific prediction markets be an EA cause area by 2030?34%
Will any of my "Change my Mind" markets actually change my mind by the end of 2023?25%
Will any prediction market implement CEO markets before 2025?3%
Will any real money prediction market let you bet using indices rather than fiat/crypto by 2025?19%
Will there be 5+ "thought leaders" that became so due in part to trading success on prediction markets by end of 2026?27%
If Tetraspace makes a bunch of personal prediction markets before end Apr 2023, will they regret it by end Dec 2023?5%
Will I think using prediction markets in my day-to-day will have made me a better thinker by 2024?77%
Will PredictIt still be operating markets through the end of 2023?64%
Will someone be charged for using a real-money prediction market in Singapore by 2033 Jan?62%
Will Interactive Brokers announce a prediction market platform before the end of 2023?14%
Will resolve-to-market markets be banned in 2023?10%
Will PredictIt still be operating markets through March 2024?60%
Will PredictIt still be operating markets through Oct 2023?75%
Will market creators be able to bet on their own market in 2024?96%
Will there be more "rationalussy" markets that resolve to YES or NO in 2023?36%