Conditional on prediction markets becoming mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because commissioners at the CFTC changed their mind?
12
1kṀ2382030
33%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://richardhanania.substack.com/p/how-to-legalize-prediction-markets
Will resolve N/A if prediction markets don't become mostly legal in the US by 2030.
Jan 31, 1:49am: Conditional on prediction markets becoming mostly legal in the US by 2030, is it because commissioners at the CFTC changed their mind? → Conditional on prediction markets becoming mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because commissioners at the CFTC changed their mind?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
What will the outcomes of the CFTC Roundtable on prediction markets announced for around march 22 be?
If prediction markets become mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it mostly because of a judicial ruling?
51% chance
If prediction markets become mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because of actions by Congress?
22% chance
Will real money prediction markets become legal in the US by the end of 2025?
49% chance
When will a major new policy on prediction markets be released by CFTC?
Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?
82% chance
Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?
45% chance
Will a Wall St firm use prediction markets as an investment vehicle by July 14 2025
73% chance
Will the Supreme Court rule on PredictIt vs. CFTC before 2026?
18% chance
Will the CFTC ban derivative bets on US elections by the end of 2025?
49% chance
Sort by:
Caroline Pham is the new acting chairman and gave what seems to me to be a pro-prediction market press release:
https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9046-25
OA Deep Research seems to suggest she'll be pro prediction market legalization: https://chatgpt.com/share/67a44ec8-cca4-8008-9b84-c7a8c8ff5ffe
People are also trading
Related questions
What will the outcomes of the CFTC Roundtable on prediction markets announced for around march 22 be?
If prediction markets become mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it mostly because of a judicial ruling?
51% chance
If prediction markets become mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because of actions by Congress?
22% chance
Will real money prediction markets become legal in the US by the end of 2025?
49% chance
When will a major new policy on prediction markets be released by CFTC?
Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?
82% chance
Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?
45% chance
Will a Wall St firm use prediction markets as an investment vehicle by July 14 2025
73% chance
Will the Supreme Court rule on PredictIt vs. CFTC before 2026?
18% chance
Will the CFTC ban derivative bets on US elections by the end of 2025?
49% chance