Will the Supreme Court rule on PredictIt vs. CFTC before 2026?
23
Ṁ1kṀ2.9k2027
5%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if the US Supreme Court issues a ruling that involves either PredictIt, Inc. or Aristotle International, Inc. and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as opposing parties at any time before 2026.
Background: The US Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals issued an injunction barring the CFTC from shutting down PredictIt.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will the Supreme Court hear a case about prediction market pre-emption?
44% chance
When will a major new policy on prediction markets be released by CFTC?
Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?
82% chance
Will the CFTC ban derivative bets on US elections by the end of 2026?
15% chance
Conditional on prediction markets becoming mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because commissioners at the CFTC changed their mind?
33% chance
Will the Supreme Court rule against disparate impact by Dec 31 2026?
30% chance
If prediction markets become mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it mostly because of a judicial ruling?
51% chance
Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?
60% chance
Will the Supreme Court strike down the FTC’s attempt to ban noncompete agreements before the end of 2026?
30% chance
Will PredictIt continue to have a conservative bent by end of 2028?
65% chance