Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if prediction markets are banned in the United States before 31 December 2026. A ban is defined as a federal prohibition that prevents the operation of prediction market platforms or makes it illegal for U.S. residents to trade on prediction markets. State-level bans or restrictions do not trigger a YES resolution. The market resolves NO if prediction markets continue to operate legally under federal CFTC oversight through 31 December 2026.

Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the CFTC, Congress, or federal courts establishing a nationwide ban. Check the CFTC website for regulatory updates.

Background

The CFTC recently withdrew a 2024 proposed rule that would have banned political and sports-related event contracts, signaling a shift toward permitting such contracts. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig announced plans to "support the responsible development of event contract markets," laying out a four-part regulatory agenda.

Prediction markets are generally legal under the federal CFTC, though some states have challenged their legality. As of January 2026, three prediction market platforms are involved in more than 20 ongoing legal disputes across the country, with lawsuits and cease-and-desist letters filed in 11 states and by several tribal governments.

Considerations

Until the Supreme Court draws the line between event contracts and betting or wagering, prediction markets will operate in a dual regulatory reality — federally legitimized under the CFTC but resisted at the state level in multiple states. Lawmakers in Iowa and New York are considering bills to regulate and tax prediction markets, while legislators in Hawaii and Illinois are seeking to limit or prohibit the platforms altogether. However, multiple sources suggest such state legislative efforts are largely ineffective, with industry analysts noting that "state legislatures are wasting their time trying to ban and/or regulate prediction markets."

This description was generated by AI.