If Biden wins, will the US enter a recession before 2027?

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resolved Jul 22

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If Biden does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.

If Biden does win, resolves Yes if the US enters a recession (according to the Sahm Rule recession indicator) before the start of 2027. Otherwise resolves No.

I will use the Sahm Rule recession indicator as shown here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMCURRENT
If any datapoint in 2025 or 2026 is 0.5% or greater (i.e. if the 3-month-moving average of unemployment is at least 0.5% above its 12-month low) then a recession is underway, per this rule. (I'll wait until February 2027 in case of revisions, and use the most recent revision at that time.)

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I will resolve this NA once the Democratic party officially nominates someone who isn't Biden.

Replacement market here:

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I've boosted and subsidized this pair of questions with 10k Mana! They currently show Biden and Trump both at 30%, so if you think there should be any difference there's potentially lot of profit you can make betting on that!

Thanks! Now that Biden is gone, I have a replacement market here: https://manifold.markets/PeterF/if-harris-wins-will-the-us-enter-a?r=UGV0ZXJG

bought Ṁ10 YES

What if the Sahm rule threshold is reached before the election or inauguration?

@MarkHC I'll resolve this by looking at datapoints in 2025 and 2026. As long as the indicator is above 0.5% at some point in 2025 or 2026 (and Biden wins the election), this will resolve yes.

As you can see in the chart of the indicator, whenever it's gone above 0.5% it's generally stayed above that threshold for many months -- so if it breaks the threshold in late 2024 it will very likely have some triggering datapoint in 2025 as well.

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