US officially enter a recession in 2024? (NBER)
22
2.6k
2025
30%
chance

Resolves YES if by the end of 2026, NBER determines that the US entered a recession at any point in 2024 (in other words, if they announce a business cycle peak occurred during 2024). Resolves NO otherwise.

For context on how NBER determines recessions, see https://manifold.markets/jack/did-the-us-officially-enter-a-reces

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