US officially enter a recession in 2024? (NBER)
Plus
36
Ṁ8101Jan 1
8%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if by the end of 2026, NBER determines that the US entered a recession at any point in 2024 (in other words, if they announce a business cycle peak occurred during 2024). Resolves NO otherwise.
For context on how NBER determines recessions, see https://manifold.markets/jack/did-the-us-officially-enter-a-reces
Related:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2024?
4% chance
Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2025?
43% chance
If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?
64% chance
Will the US officially enter a recession in 2023? (Announcement by NBER)
4% chance
US Recession in 2025?
32% chance
US enter a recession in 2024? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)
3% chance
Will the US economy have a recession [two quarters of negative GDP growth] in 2024?
5% chance
Will the US enter a recession by January 1, 2023?
3% chance
Will US avoid a recession in 2024?
88% chance
Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?
22% chance