If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?

Question

If Trump does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.

If Trump does win, resolves Yes if the US enters a recession (according to the Sahm Rule recession indicator) before the start of 2027. Otherwise resolves No.

I will use the Sahm Rule recession indicator as shown here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMCURRENT
If any datapoint in 2025 or 2026 is 0.5% or greater (i.e. if the 3-month-moving average of unemployment is at least 0.5% above its 12-month low) then a recession is underway, per this rule. (For a "no" resolution, I'll wait until February 2027 in case of revisions, and use the most recent revision at that time.)

Sweeps update: We may close this market temporarily around election day to prevent manipulation.

Compare:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/PeterF/if-harris-wins-will-the-us-enter-a?r=UGV0ZXJG)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 6% chance (223 traders, as of Nov 8, 2026).