Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2025? | Manifold

Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2025?

112

1.5kṀ39k

2027

34%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES if the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declares, by the end of 2026, US Eastern Time, that the US entered a recession at any point in 2024 or 2025. Resolves NO on 2027-01-01 otherwise.

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The 10Y3M and 10Y2Y yield curves have both "uninverted": what's the longest time between these uninversions and an NBER recession in the last 100 years? 6 months?

Each month, I will return the Creator Earnings from this market as added liquidity.

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