Will resolve "yes" if a recession at any time during Trump's second term. A recession is defined as EITHER i) 2 consecutive quarters where the GDP is negative OR ii) a recession of at least 6 months in length is declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). This will be at any time during Trump's term, so if the two quarter or 6 months occurs at any time up to January 20, 2029. Estimates and NBER declarations can lag up to a year, so if it doesn't occur beforehand and there is any possibility or debate of it occurring at the end of the term, will allow for up to a year after inauguration for declaration. If any estimates are revised, the initial ones are what will count (so we don't have to adjust payouts).
Update 2025-08-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified that BEA data will be considered the "official" source for GDP estimates.
Update 2025-12-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Trump's second term is defined as:
Ending early if Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029 for any reason
Ending on January 20, 2029 even if Trump somehow stays in power beyond that date (as he would no longer be in his "second term")
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@JussiVilleHeiskanen good question. The key words are "Trump" and "Second Term". So if Trump left office early for any reason, then that would be the end point (as Trump would no longer be in power and thus no longer Trump's second term). Additionally, if Trump for some reason stayed in power past Jan 20th, he would no longer be in his "second term", so it would end on Jan 20th 2029.
@JRR On the same vein, of course, I think it is clear that needs only enter, so this will be quite a bit lagging in resolution. [Edit] meh it is right there in the description. Sorry.
OECD, H1 2025: "Excluding AI-related investments, which continued to boom, GDP contracted by 0.1%." ( https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2025-issue-2_9f653ca1-en/full-report/united-states_3d9917c1.html )
@KarlK Didn't think it would possible be an issue when I started this, but fair point. As of now, the BEA head has not been fired or replaced. It is the official estimate, so it is what we have to go with. However, I always indicated (per description ) I would also allow for NBER determination too, which is a non-government independent group. So there is an independent check if the main numbers are not reliable.
@VNetChrome the BEA data is considered to be the "official" GDP estimate. This, and the NBER analysis (as noted in the description) will be used.