I WANT TO STRESS THAT THIS MARKET IS NOT ABOUT RECESSIONS, BUT ABOUT TWO CONSECUTIVE QUARTERS OF NEGATIVE GDP GROWTH!!

I have been fooled by markets like this, including on Polymarket, so beware!

Yes. It's stated very clearly in the description! This definition is much less arbitrary and much quicker to resolve than the official one (although they are usually the same). I will note that many other prediction markets prefer this definition for the same reason e.g. Kalshi.

When you say you were fooled by similar markets, is it because you specifically thought that the two criteria would differ in 2023, or because the commentary on the topic sometimes uses the definitions interchangeably without being specific?

I always read the title "recession" and understand it's referring to a recession, not two-consecutive quarters of declining GDP growth, as often is the case in the description. A question "will two consecutive quarters of declining GDP growth" would be a precise title.

I bet on a similar market on Polymarket. Then go read the description. And sold my shares. And yes, I think the metrics can differ. We had two consecutive quarters of declining GDP growth in 2022, all due to inventories.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/19/goldman-sachs-cuts-odds-of-us-recession-to-20percent-on-fresh-data.html

Goldman's 12-month recession forecast at 20%

Goldman Sachs cuts odds of U.S. recession to 20% after retail and jobs data

"Continued expansion would make the US look more similar to other G10 economies, where the Sahm rule has held less than 70% of the time," economists said.