Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?
977
10kṀ950k2026
19%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
A recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters where the GDP is negative. We will use the initial estimate provided, not any revised estimates.
Both quarters must occur in 2025, ie Q3 and Q4 having negative GDP will resolve this market to YES. However, 2025 Q4 and 2026 Q1 would resolve this market to NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will China's economy enter a recession by 2025?
15% chance
Was the US already in a recession in July 2024?
1% chance
Will the world experience a recession in 2025?
19% chance
Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?
2% chance
Will the NBER Announce the US is in recession during 2025 by the end of 2025?
27% chance
Will the NBER Announce the US is in recession during 2025 by Q2 2026?
20% chance
Conditional on there being a US recession in 2024, will Q3 2024 have negative gdp growth?
15% chance
Will there be a global recession declared by the IMF before December 31, 2025?
23% chance
Will there be a worldwide recession before 2029?
45% chance
Will the US experience a recession during 2026?
30% chance