Background
Donald Trump has been elected to a second term as President of the United States, which began on January 20, 2025. The Constitution limits presidents to two terms under the 22nd Amendment. There are several ways a president can leave office, including completing their term, resignation, impeachment and removal, invocation of the 25th Amendment, or death in office.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to the option that best describes how Donald Trump leaves the presidency. Only one option can resolve as YES:
At the end of his term in 2029: Resolves YES if Trump serves until January 20, 2029, when his successor is inaugurated.
Impeached, tried, and removed: Resolves YES if the House impeaches Trump, the Senate convicts him with a two-thirds majority vote, and he is removed from office.
Resignation: Resolves YES if Trump voluntarily resigns from office before the end of his term, regardless of whether impeachment proceedings have begun.
25th Amendment removal: Resolves YES if Trump is removed from office through the 25th Amendment process, which requires either a majority of his cabinet declaring him unfit or a two-thirds vote in both houses of Congress.
Death in office: Resolves YES if Trump dies while serving as president, causing the Vice President to assume the presidency.
22nd Amendment repealed, wins third term: Resolves YES if the 22nd Amendment is repealed through the constitutional amendment process and Trump subsequently wins a third term in the 2028 election.
Seizes power through coup: Resolves YES if Trump refuses to leave office after his constitutional term ends or otherwise seizes power through extra-constitutional means.
If Trump's departure from office doesn't clearly fit any of these categories, the market creator may add additional options as needed.
Update 2025-04-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Clarification:
Trump's Eligibility: Trump is constitutionally ineligible to serve a third term, and the 12th Amendment prevents any ineligible individual from serving as Vice President.
Unconstitutional Means: Any scenario that attempts to circumvent these constitutional limits—such as using a vice presidential candidacy to enable an extra-constitutional transition of power—will be resolved under the option for remaining in power through unconstitutional means.
Update 2025-08-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about a scenario where the 2024 election is found to be fraudulent, the creator clarified:
The discovery of a corrupt election is not a resolution event in itself, as Trump has already been sworn in.
His departure from office would still need to occur through one of the established mechanisms. The market would resolve based on that specific action (e.g., Impeachment, Resignation, 25th Amendment).
If no such action is taken and he completes his term, it would resolve based on how he ultimately leaves office.
Update 2025-08-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about defenestration (being thrown from a window), the creator has clarified:
If this event leads to death, it will be resolved under the Death in office option.
If he survives such an event, he would still be president, and this would not be a resolving event.
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@TheWabiSabi thanks, but i think i'm close to risk limits. btw i think you can get slightly better prices here https://manifold.markets/PuckMinder/will-trump-finish-his-second-term
@ThomasMach Hahaha. Yes, to a "normal" person, yes. But this is Trump!! haha. He would prefer dying in the White House! Am I bad? Since you asked, months ago, does it still appear likely to you?
@AnnCummings Yes resigning still appears undervalued to me compared to dying. There are reasons to resign in exchange for a pardon to keep the bribes for the family, which they may loose after death followed by an investigation by the new leader. Similarly if it gets to impeachment and conviction in the senate, resigning can be the way out.
This were essentially the reasons for Jeltsin to resign 26 years ago.
@ThomasMach yes. I do see what you mean and fully respect to you: But, this is TRUMP.
I'm laughing, right now, just thinking about it. Maybe he resign to enter hospice care? I just can't see it: He needs the attention like air!! Do you have some down on the resigning?
@AnnCummings Dying and resigning is 16% together, it's 14:2. I am not saying it should be 2:14, but maybe 11% dying and 5% resigning.
@ThomasMach You are likely right and I am in my feelings!! I imagine him doing ANYTHING that might be flavored with "humility" (or humanity?) and I just can't see it! I start laughing Thanks for your kind reply. What about 14: Dying AND 5% resigning??? Can we keep dying near the top.?.
@ThomasMach LOL-> Dont go by me!! I have no idea what I am doing.!!.
Did you take any of the sports bets? I have some NFL for this weekend
@mathvc There were rumors today that he died, but that was probably false. But also, he's old, fat, talks slow and got a big blue mark on his hand.
What if it will turn out, that vote count was fabricated and he doesn't even have any right to serve as POTUS in the first place? Which outcome would it be?
@Chachachi I am assuming you mean if the 2024 vote count was fabricated. Trump has been sworn in as president, so a corrupt election would not in itself remove him from office. He would need to be removed by some other action (impeachment+trial, 25th Amendment, resignation) or he would simply remain in office (and leave in 2029, die, etc.).
@PaulSchleuse Anyone who places a Yes order @ 75%, I will be happy to buy more No at the price point.
@Kingfisher Wouldn’t he still be leaving office, if not only for a moment when de jure candidate is inaugurated?
@Kingfisher Trump is not eligible to serve a third term, and the 12th Amendment establishes that no one ineligible to be President can serve as Vice President. So this scenario falls under "remain in power through unconstitutional means."