The same market: /strutheo/if-donald-trump-wins-the-election-w-qhd9pz0w6m

@StepanBakhmarin Thanks for the link! I searched for similar markets but that one didn’t show up.

@StepanBakhmarin This market has more people trading.

The base rate is 17%

@ProjectVictory Zero percent since Kennedy!

I am betting based on my hopes and dreams

Can you please tag death markets as such? 🙏

@andri Done! Sorry, I didn’t know that tag existed.

@NathanDiesel thanks!

What if there is an inauguration at an earlier date but he is still alive?

@Thomas42 Unless you know something I don’t, that isn’t possible. If he’s alive but can’t complete his term, then the VP takes over. Which means he didn’t die in office. There can’t be an early inauguration. That date is simply a deadline to resolve the question.

@Thomas42 Though you make me think there is an edge case in which he is alive but unable to complete his term. Then the VP takes over and while the VP is President, then Trump dies. In that case he could die before Inauguration Day but not while in office. I’ll clarify the conditions.

@NathanDiesel ah interesting, didn't know that is how it works (not an American). I guess what I meant to ask is what happens if someone else assumes the presidency while he is still alive.

@Thomas42 Yes, it is possible that someone else assumes the presidency while he is alive during his 2nd term. The spirit of the question is meant to ask about the possibility of him dying before he completes his term, not the possibility of him being removed from office. I updated the description to clarify that.

FYI, Trump is the 47th president. It’s not the 47th term. If he gets reelected in 2028, that’s still the 47th presidency. If he loses to someone else, and is then reelected, he gets a new number.

@OP Thanks! I corrected and clarified the title and description.