If Trump loses the 2024 election, or e.g. has a heart attack immediately after winning, "Trump isn't elected or fails to take office" resolves YES and all other options resolve NO.
If Trump is still in power in February 2029, even if it's temporary because of an emergency or something like that, "Trump remains in office after his term is up" resolves YES and "Trump leaves office when his term ends" resolves NO.
If Trump is replaced by a Republican who he has strong influence over, that still counts as leaving office, unless it's incredibly clear to international observers that it was a total sham election to appoint a puppet.
If there's substantial ambiguity around an option, it will resolve to a percentage based on my judgement.
Update 2025-03-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Conspiracy Theories Do Not Count
Claims by conspiracy theorists or groups (e.g. QAnon) that Trump is secretly POTUS will not affect the resolution.
De Facto Exercise of Power
If Trump continues to act as President (e.g. passing laws) despite being replaced, the resolution may be determined as a percentage based on how much of the government actually treats him as President.
A very low percentage of support in these circumstances may be viewed as a failed coup attempt.
Broad Definition of Government
In cases of civil conflict or alternative governments (e.g. a militia declaring itself the true US government), it will still resolve to a percentage if they are acting as a government in a meaningful way (such as controlling territory).
Update 2025-03-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Trump Death Clarification
If Trump dies before the end of his term, the option Trump leaves office when his term ends will resolve as NO.
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@OWilkinson I think that would fall under
If Trump is replaced by a Republican who he has strong influence over, that still counts as leaving office, unless it's incredibly clear to international observers that it was a total sham election to appoint a puppet.
If he was to, say, explicitly run on a platform of "vote for this guy and he'll resign five minutes after inauguration", I would consider that "incredibly clear", and it would count as him avoiding leaving office. It's kind of the ultimate example of a "puppet", since they'd be performing only one action at his explicit direction.
Though, note, it's my understanding that Trump can't legally run as VP, since you need to be eligible for office to be Vice President. This would need fairly creative interpretation of what that means by the courts.
@MugaSofer I don't think there's any chance of him unambiguously remaining in office, but there's a really good chance that a significant section of Americans still consider him president and act like he is.
@digory A situation where some conspiracy theorists claim he is still secretly POTUS - as some qanon types believed last time he left office - wouldn't matter for this question.
If he explicitly continues acting as if he's the President, passing laws and so on, despite being replaced, that would likely resolve to a percentage based on how much of the government actually treats him as President. (If it was a very low percentage, I'd also count this as a failed coup attempt.)
I'd probably be generous with what counts as "government" in those sorts of situations; a civil war where Trump led some kind of militia he declared to be the true US governmenta gainst the mainline US government would probably still resolve to a percentage. But they'd need to actually act as a government in some meaningful way (holding territory etc.)
@MugaSofer why would Trump supporters kill or hospitalise someone trying to prevent him leaving? I'd assume the trump supporters would not want him to leave
@evan I get the protest him leaving, but why prevent him leaving? Trump supporters want to prevent him leaving, ie make him stay
@ian I think it was intended to mean "Trump supporters kill or hospitalise someone while trying to prevent/protest him leaving," in a similar situation to Jan. 6, but current wording is ambiguous
@ian Trump supporters, while trying to prevent him from having to leave office, kill or hospitalise someone.
Possible arbitrage with my market here: https://manifold.markets/AndrewMaxwell/will-donald-trump-remain-de-facto-l which is similar to "Trump remains in office after his term is up" but only at 6% right now.
@MugaSofer is it possible for "Trump leaves office when his term ends" and "Trump attempts something arguably coup-like but it fails" to both resolve yes? I'm having trouble reconciling the current probabilities otherwise.
