When or where will Trump die?
95
3.7kṀ19k
2036
97%
In the US
87%
Before we get ASI
86%
Before we get AGI
75%
Before 2030
69%
In Florida
66%
In a hospital
60%
Mar-a-Lago
49%
While in office
43%
After his presidency
41%
Surrounded by his friends and loved ones
32%
Outside (not in a vehicle or building)
28%
On an airplane
21%
During WW3
19%
In front of a camera
16%
On a Monday
15%
On a Tuesday
15%
On a Wednesday
15%
On a Thursday
15%
On a Friday
15%
On a Saturday

Background Donald Trump was born on June 14, 1946, making him 77 years old. He is currently the oldest major party nominee for president in U.S. history. According to CDC data, the average life expectancy for a 77-year-old American male is approximately 9.4 additional years.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve based on the year of Donald Trump's death as reported by multiple reputable news sources. If Trump dies during a particular year listed in the options, that option will resolve to YES and all others to NO.

The market will resolve N/A if:

  • Trump's death cannot be verified by multiple reputable sources

  • The exact date of death cannot be determined

  • The death occurs under disputed circumstances where the date is unclear

Considerations

  • Trump has access to high-quality medical care and resources which may extend life expectancy beyond population averages

  • His father, Fred Trump, lived to be 93 years old, suggesting possible genetic factors for longevity

  • As a former president, he receives lifetime medical care from military physicians

  • Stress factors from legal proceedings and potential political activities could impact health outcomes

  • Medical privacy laws may affect the timing and details of death announcements

Note: This market deals with the death of a public figure. Traders should approach the topic with appropriate sensitivity and respect.

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@Marnix Is loved ones people that Trump loves or people that love Trump?

@Qoiuoiuoiu it'd be HIS loved ones, so the people he loves

bought Ṁ5 NO

@Marnix Is it possible for a man to surround himself?

@dsj how should I rewrite this?

bought Ṁ1 YES

Related:

bought Ṁ50 NO

@Marnix does Trump have friends and loved ones?

bought Ṁ50 NO

You can make it as specific as you want it by adding other options

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