Following the events in Caracas, there’s one clear question: is this the start of a trend?
This market resolves YES if any individual named on Wikipedia’s List of current heads of state and government is abducted by any part of the United States state apparatus (military, CIA, Postal Service) for any duration before market close. If this does not happen before market close then the market will resolve NO.
Evidence for YES must be a headline from either one of the five largest US news organisations or one of the top three papers of record in the relevant country.
Abduction need not be from the country of which the individual is head of state, nor must the individual be removed to US territory for the abduction to count.
As final arbiter of “was this an abduction” I will not bet on this market.
Maduro does not count towards this unless he is returned to Venezuela first and then abducted again.
Individual must have been listed on the Wikpedia list at the point they are abducted by the United States plus or minus one day if there is any confusion about exact timing.
1,000People are also trading
Relevant to Venezuela's president abduction: [Will President Maduro be removed from office before [Date]?]
https://manifold.markets/dynamics/when-coup-in-venezuela-will-a-new-g
@dynamics can you please stop spamming every Venezuela market with your own unless it’s directly relevant for arbitrage? People will easily find it.
@prismatic thanks. It shows an extra 60 or so mana for my bet size if I bet the same in that market, which off the top of my head doesn't seem worth it for that market remaining open for 2 extra years.
I will work out the arb breakeven math at some point though. I've only been on Manifold for 3 months so hadn't bothered to yet.
