Will a new government be established in Venezuela that officially ceases to recognize Nicolás Maduro as President before [Insert Date]?

Resolution Criteria for "coup":

This market will resolve to YES if, by the specified date, a government is in power in Caracas that meets at least two of the following conditions:

1. Official Denunciation: The executive branch or a newly formed governing council issue an official decree stating that Nicolás Maduro is no longer the President of Venezuela.

2. New Presidential Oath: An individual other than Nicolás Maduro or his direct "continuity" appointee (e.g., a leader from the opposition or a military-led transitional council) is sworn in as President and exercises de facto control over the Venezula's capital and state institutions.

3. Constitutional Nullification: The Supreme Court or a newly convened legislative body formally nullifies Maduro’s current term and recognizes a successor who is not part of his immediate political circle.

Important "Fine Print" for Clarity

• Interim Successors: If the current Vice President (Delcy Rodríguez) takes power but continues to claim she is "acting" on behalf of "only single President" Maduro, this market will stay NO unless she formally breaks from him.

• De Facto vs. De Jure: Recognition by foreign powers (like the UN council) is strong evidence but not sufficient alone; the change must be reflected in the governing authority within Venezuela itself.

• Conflict & Ambiguity: If there are two competing governments (e.g., a "government in exile" vs. a "palace government"), this market will resolve based on who controls the presidential palace (Miraflores) and the military.

• Independent Resolution: This market resolves based not on the own creator's judgment of the facts. While Metaculus and Polymarket data can be used as references, this market is not bound by their specific resolution decisions. Any information must come from acting Venezuela's government - legal departments.

This is a significant update to your market description. Given that it is now January 4, 2026, following the events of Operation Absolute Resolve (the capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces on January 3rd), your market is extremely timely.

Here is the refined text, edited for clarity, professional tone, and specific focus on the "coup/regime change" aspect.

Description of "coup or Establishment of a New Government in Venezuela

Question: Will a new government be established in Venezuela that officially ceases to recognize Nicolás Maduro as President before [before Date]?

Context (January 2026)

Following the U.S. operation on January 3, 2026, which resulted in the capture and escorting of Nicolás Maduro to the United States, the governing status of Venezuela is in a state of flux. While Vice President Delcy Rodríguez has assumed de facto authority in Caracas and currently maintains the "continuity" of the Maduro administration, this market seeks to determine if a definitive break or "coup" occurs that installs a government no longer loyal to Maduro’s mandate.

Resolution Criteria for "Government Change"

This market will resolve to YES if, by the specified date, a governing authority in power in Caracas meets at least two of the following conditions:

1. Official Denunciation: The executive branch, a newly formed "Junta," or a transitional governing council issues an official decree or public manifesto stating that Nicolás Maduro is no longer the President of Venezuela.

2. New Presidential Oath: An individual other than Nicolás Maduro, or a successor whose primary claim to power is Maduro’s direct appointment, is sworn in as President (e.g., an opposition leader like Edmundo González or a military-led transitional head) and exercises de facto control over state institutions and the capital.

3. Constitutional Nullification example: The Supreme Court (TSJ) or a newly convened legislative body formally nullifies Maduro’s 2024 election victory and recognizes a successor who is not part of his immediate political circle.

Important Fine Print

• Interim Successors: If Delcy Rodríguez or another PSUV official takes power but continues to govern "under President Maduro" or claims to be an acting placeholder for his return, this market will resolve to NO unless they formally renounce his authority.

• De Facto Control: Recognition by consensus of world powers (e.g., the UN decision) is strong evidence but not sufficient alone. The change must be reflected in the governing authority physically present and operating within Venezuela.

• Competing Governments: In the event of "dual power" (e.g., a government-in-exile vs. a palace government), the market resolves based on which entity controls the Miraflores Presidential Palace and the high command of the Bolivarian National Armed Forces (FANB).

• Independent Resolution: This market is independent of the creator's personal opinion. While references like Metaculus, Polymarket, or major news outlets will be used as evidence, the final resolution depends on the official legal and executive actions taken by the acting authorities in Venezuela.

Recent Data for Participants

• Current State: As of January 4, 2026, Trump has announced they are "running" the country via a designated team until a transition is arranged, but the Maduro-aligned military still holds all key positions in Caracas.

• The "González" Factor: Edmundo González remains the internationally recognized winner of the 2024 election by many Western nations, but as of today, he has not been seated in Miraflores.