Resolution criteria
The market resolves YES if the US conducts a targeted strike on a foreign leader on January 3, 2027. A targeted strike is defined as a military operation specifically designed to kill, capture, or incapacitate a sitting head of state or equivalent leader of a foreign nation. Resolution will be based on official US government statements, credible news reporting from major outlets, or public confirmation from the targeted leader's government. The strike must occur within the calendar date of January 3, 2027 in the location of the strike, if any part of the operation happens during January 3, this market will resolve as yes. The market resolves NO if no such strike occurs by end of day January 3, 2027.
Background
On January 3, 2026, the US conducted strikes in Venezuela and captured President Nicolás Maduro. Since taking office on January 20, 2025, Trump has overseen at least 626 air strikes. US special forces struck Venezuela before dawn on January 3, 2026, bombing installations across the capital and extracting President Nicolás Maduro in an operation that lasted roughly thirty minutes, with Maduro announced in US custody by Saturday afternoon facing drug trafficking charges in New York.
1,000@retr0id Trump took out Soleimani on January 3rd, 2020, and Maduro on January 3rd, 2026. Other than the pattern, it’s right at the beginning of the year, with a day after federal holidays, giving time for whatever teams are needed to assemble. I personally don’t think this is very likely, but I thought would be a fun market.