This market resolves YES if, before Jan 1, 2027 at 00:00 Cuban local time., the United States conducts a confirmed kinetic strike on Cuban territory or military assets (air, land, naval), including but not limited to:

• Manned aircraft bombing runs

• Armed drone strikes

• Cruise missile strikes (including those launched from naval vessels or submarines)

This market does NOT include:

• Cyber operations

• Sanctions or economic measures

• Covert sabotage without widely reported confirmation

Resolution will be based on confirmation by the US government or at least two major international news organizations.