In 2025 the US government under Trump conducted overt military operations against seven countries; Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, Somalia, Syria, Venezuela and Yemen.
Will the US conduct overt military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?
Overt military operations are attacks by air, sea or ground conducted by Department of Defense forces. Covert action strikes will be counted only when conducted by DoD and later officially acknowledged by the US government.
IT IS HARD TO BELIEVE I HAVE TO SAY THIS BUT THE USA DOES NOT COUNT. 🇺🇸
Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if the US Department of Defense conducts overt military operations (air, sea, or ground strikes) against 8 or more distinct countries during the calendar year 2026. Covert operations count only if officially acknowledged by the US government in 2026.
For resolution purposes, operations against the same country on multiple occasions count as a single country. The market resolves NO if operations occur against 7 or fewer countries. Resolution will be determined by official DoD statements and public acknowledgments from the Trump administration.
Background
In 2025, the US carried out military attacks against a total of seven countries: Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, Somalia, Syria, Venezuela and Yemen. Since taking office on Jan. 20, 2025, Trump has overseen at least 626 air strikes, representing a significant escalation in military activity. Direct U.S. military action against Venezuela was ranked as a high-likelihood, high-impact contingency by the Council on Foreign Relations for 2026, suggesting potential for continued operations in the region. (Background generated by AI)
Considerations
The threshold of 8 countries represents a modest increase from 2025's 7 countries. Given the Trump administration's demonstrated willingness to conduct strikes across multiple regions—from counterterrorism operations in Africa and the Middle East to anti-narcotics campaigns in the Caribbean—reaching this threshold depends on whether new theaters of military operation emerge or existing campaigns expand to additional countries.
1,000People are also trading
Possible arbitrage here:
https://manifold.markets/someoneR5c8l/where-will-the-us-attack-in-2026-ad
Actually, in the opposite direction from what I originally thought. It looks like the sum of the odds there is actually around 6 or 7 attacks, so I guess people should bet "yes" on everything there and "no" here, until I guess the sum of those odds is around 8 and the probability here is around 50%? Or else the sum of those odds should stay low and the odds here should go wayyy down. But there's some steady state where the two line up, and you can make guaranteed mana to push things towards steady state.
(8 is intentionally wrong - if you don't understand these two markets enough to know why, don't make this bet.)