excluding Trump holding Maduro, will there be another one this year?
Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves based on pairwise combinations of captors and captives:
If the same leader holds multiple different leaders captive, each new pairing counts as a separate instance
If a successor to a previously captured leader is held (and sufficiently well-established), that counts as a new instance
Holding former leaders (e.g., former U.S. presidents) also counts
Capturing multiple subordinates or acting officials under one regime does not clearly satisfy the criteria
1,000@JussiVilleHeiskanen pairwise. So if Trump holds another world leader captive, it would count. If the successor of Maduro sis sufficiently well established and is held, that would count too.
But if in a week, after rumors, Trump scoops up say the top 50 people under Maduro, some of whom had been acting as the national leader in a way, that doesn't feel like a clear satisfaction of the goal.
Note this also would count as written if Trump were to hold, say, Bill Clinton. God forbid.