So far all paintings targeted by activists have suffered at worst minor, superficial damage. This question resolves to YES if at least one famous work of art (not its frame, case or stand) in a museum, gallery or private collection is significantly damaged by Just Stop Oil activists before the end of 2023. 'Famous' and 'significant' will be subjectively assessed based on relevant press reports.
See the 2022 market on how I interpret significant damage (the only candidates didn't pass the test).
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| # | Name | Total profit |
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| 1 | Ṁ63 | |
| 2 | Ṁ50 | |
| 3 | Ṁ47 | |
| 4 | Ṁ17 | |
| 5 | Ṁ12 |
@RuthGraceWong They have taken precautions to avoid damaging the paintings in the past. The 2022 market has a link to https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2022/dec/06/just-stop-oil-climate-protesters-told-to-pay-national-gallery-1000-for-damaging-painting where they mention consulting an art expert to make sure they would not damage the painting. (They were fined for damaging the painting, but the damage was repaired within a day, and seems to be to the varnish and frame.)
@UnconditionalProbability Let’s say that they were incompetent, and managed to permanently damage a painting without meaning to. Would that count as a “Yes”?
@RuthGraceWong In my view, “Yes”. But… I presume that this question is restricted to whether it would cause permanent physical damage, whether or not intentional, correct?