PepsiCo has made strange comments this week following delivery of the trucks that it is capable of 400 mile range hauling potato chips but only 100 mile range hauling soda. Tesla has claimed 400 mile range loaded to approximately 85,000 lbs so why does the type of cargo effect this?
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm
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PepsiCo did not state that it was 'only capable of 100 mile range hauling soda', they stated '...for heavier loads of sodas, the trucks will do shorter trips of around 100 miles'. They did not elaborate why. "Gross misrepresentation" clearly implies ~100 mile range @ 85k lb load based on the market description, and there is no evidence that this is the case.
As @DanMan314 has cited, real-world tests put range around the claimed 400 miles.
“We’re tracking the beverage. It’s impressive, a fairly heavy haul at nearly 80,000 pounds. It goes to one location and drops off soda, but maybe picks up some waters, goes to another location to drop off water but pick up Gatorade. We don’t really know the payload, (but) NACFE has verified that these are fairly fully loaded when they leave and stay fairly loaded. They’re not out there gaming Run on Less,”
With 20% charge left in one case after 400 miles:
See also: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/dave-mullaney-b2332113_tesla-semis-real-world-performance-stats-activity-7108106452602404864-29WA and https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-semi-run-on-less-results-bamf-performance/
https://www.thedrive.com/news/real-world-tesla-semi-range-data-is-in-and-its-not-bad
3 trucks, the single best one got to only 377 miles, payload unclear but probably not 85k lbs.
Similar here: https://insideevs.com/news/689084/tesla-semi-1000-mile-drive-single-day/
Unclear resolution criteria but not really sure why this is at 17%?
@dionisos I just want to affirm, as a native english speaker, that using "precise" as a verb is valid and correct going forward.
@MP I don't think you can load a truck to 85,000 lbs GVW with potato chips on a 53' trailer, can you? Anyone know what a fully loaded truck of potato chips would weigh? My guess was 30-50k
To answer your question: why does the type of cargo effect this?
It doesn't. Weight matters, sure, but the difference between 85,000 pounds gross vehicle weight (GVW) carrying soda and 30-50,000 GVW carrying chips isn't going to make a difference of 300 miles range in any world. Weight, contributing mainly to rolling resistance and acceleration costs, especially with regenerative braking, is a much smaller part of the overall energy expendatures of a truck. Wind resistance is much bigger.
They didn't say that soda only has a 100 mile range, just that this was what they were currently using it for that. There could be any number of reasons for that. Maybe they're just Testing/Trialing heavier loads at first, maybe the frequency of required shipments is higher for soda between those locations, and they need to consider recharging for multiple trips a day, supply chain needs, etc.
Afaik from my experience being a trucker, Soda is inherently a product which is more locally produced and distributed anyway, given that it's more expenvie to transport longer distances for conventional diesel trucks, and is easier to produce anywhere. All of the loads that I recieved for Sodas were always shorter than for loads of chips.
@Jacknaut If that is the case then it really doesn’t make sense for Pepsi to say that without the context. They should correct that publicly and I imagine they will soon if you’re right. Thanks for sharing your experience, you definitely have a valuable perspective.
What counts as "grossly misrepresenting"? First, we should agree on some context for what is expected overestimation/misrepresntation for real world vs advertising vs pre-public-release advertising (tesla's current state). I'd personally say that anything up to ~25% isn't "grossly misrepresenting". e.g. an effective ~375-400 mile range vs advertised 500 mile range.
Why does the market close so early on Dec 31? Seems like we'll need more time than that.
Are we comparing the speculative/advertised ~500 mile range to what currently deployed trucks at PepsiCO have, or compared to what the more widespread public release will be?
Buying NO, but only Ṁ10 until the questions above are clarified. Plenty of people have done the math, and analyzed the example concrete barrier test drive footage , and all of the speculative viability of the truck and range/speed values that Tesla has provided are within reason.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uv44W7xa4IU
Thunderf00t is a notably exceptional moron: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3dCDNIRM34
@Jacknaut If the range is 100 miles as Pepsi claimed that would be ~400 mile discrepancy. I disagree with your assertion that Tesla has released enough information for those calculations to mean anything. The only independent evidence we have are the Pepsi statements and the flags don't get any redder...
Updated close to end of 2023.
@BTE "I disagree with your assertion that Tesla has released enough information for those calculations to mean anything."
Tesla doesn't need to release anything at all for such calculations to be made on the general viability of an electric semi given current known value ranges. Go watch the video I linked.
While sure, you could argue that we specifically don't know the stats of a Tesla semi, and it's technically possible that for some reason Tesla only put 250 kWh of batteries in their trucks or something, you'd have to also argue that they're either exceptionally dumb/incompetent, or, more likely/charitably imo: that they have a good reason or specific use case for that, given what we already know generally about the theoretical capabilities of an electric smi.
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"If the range is 100 miles as Pepsi claimed that would be ~400 mile discrepancy" - are you clarifying the market's resolution criteria that I have asked for, or just stating the obvious?
If you're clarifying that the market resolves NO if the range capabilities of a Tesla Semi are > 125 miles, I'll dump Ṁ10,000 into this right now.
@Jacknaut You are overly invested in the battery science and neglecting other factors. These semis don’t travel in a vacuum, Pepsi has them deployed in California. But I don’t know enough to say more than I think you are overconfident, but I will be learning and get back to you.
To address your question of what makes "gross overstatement” I will definitely clarify today but I want to ask other bettors, yourself included, what they consider it to mean. I think we can reach a consensus and I will update the resolution criteria tonight to match the group agreement. That work?
@Jacknaut Like, why are you even talking about the “theoretical capabilities” now that they are deployed in the real world? Show me the INDEPENDENT DATA.
I'm talking about the "theoretical capabilities" because it's the most useful part of the discussion about whether or not Tesla can make such a truck in the meantime before we have public access to "INDEPENDENT DATA", if you're speaking to someone who seemingly thinks that the 500 mile drive recorded on video was faked, that Tesla is lying about the 500 mile range despite their track record of EV range, Pepsico is lying when they said the truck drove 425 miles on with 20% charge remaining (531 mile range), or someone who is retarded enough to think that a truck that can have a 531 mile range carrying 25,000 lbs will only get 100 miles carrying 85,000.
Fix the market and put more Mana in. I'm happy to take all your mana.
@BTE What fucking "other factors" am I neglecting? I linked you to a video that covers a wide variety of "other factors", explained well for the layman, and backed by scientific citations.
What fucking battery technology am I "over invested" in? Do you think that I'm speculating on some ludicris yet-to-be-discovered future improvement in battery technology? I'm not. Using the energy density of current production cells that are produced by Tesla and Panasonic, and verified with iNdEpEnDenT DaTa are capable of forming a 1,000 kWh battery pack at ~8,200 lbs.
@Jacknaut First of all, no need to be hostile brother! I haven’t got anything bet on this market, so you can take someone else’s mana and you’re welcome.
I made my last comment before you said you were a trucker and I have great respect for your first hand experience. My point about being too focused on the theoretical performance of batteries is motivated by the fact Tesla HAS NOT RELEASED THE WEIGHT OF THE SEMI. If you are simply willing to give them the benefit of the doubt, that’s cool, but don’t be surprised if it ends up being you giving away your mana to someone who is naturally skeptical. Good luck though! Thanks for sharing your firsthand knowledge. How many Semis do you think Tesla will deliver in the next 12-18 months?
@BTE "Tesla HAS NOT RELEASED THE WEIGHT OF THE SEMI."
True, but the important implication to draw from this is that it may not be able to carry as much cargo as another truck while being compatible with states weight regulations, or compatible with 2-axle trailers limited by state weight regulations ... not that it won't be able to drive 500 miles.
Assuming that they struggle with being overweight, the likely possible scenario is:
They add more batteries, add more axles and use specialized trailers, and meet the 500 mile range goal.
Possibly there could also release a 2nd model with something like a 250 mile range for dedicated/short routes such as PepsiCo's, or perhaps also with a hotswappable battery and a 200 mile range.
As an unrelated note: I highly doubt they'll announce doing anything in the yardjockey market anytime soon (5+ years). afaik those things are very well tuned designed for the job they're made for. Tesla's added value to the world/market is in their battery, motor, and self-driving software, which yardjockey trucks dont care much about. They care more about design/functionality. AI driving yardjockeys would be great value, but I think there would be a lot of extra problems/specifics to solve on top of what tesla is currently working on.