Will >60% of EAs believe that "Pause AI" protests have been net positive in Q4 2025?
AIAI SafetyEffective AltruismProtestActivismSurveysAI Moratorium
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Some time in Q4 2025 there will be a poll of EAs on the question of AI Pause Activism. This will be part of the annual EA survey (if they agree to it), some other similar survey or a poll I create and post on the EA forum. The question will be multiple choice and worded as follows:

What effect have protests calling for a pause / stop / deceleration on the development of AI had on the world?

a) Net positive
b) None / Negligible
c) Net negative

Note that the question includes any protest primarily about pausing or slowing AI, not just those branded as PauseAI protests.

The poll will be allowed to run for two weeks or whatever length of time the larger survey waits to release results before the market resolves.

Will more than 60% of respondents choose a) Net positive?
If there are fewer than 20 respondents, the market resolves N/A.

Context: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/eqTGrEsBzJJSiuTcv/the-international-pauseai-protest-activism-under-uncertainty

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I think it would be more useful to ask about the ratio of "net positive" to "net negative" answers, and make the threshold 50% instead of 60%, to get a better prediction of whether Pause AI is likely to be net positive or negative in expectation.

I bet YES but my take on what EAs think and will think about the protests has gone back and forth. The trend recently seems to be that people appreciate them.

I think they in fact are good for the world and will continue to be. Just not sure whether EAs will see it that way.

Interesting large difference between this market and the one for 2030

Will >60% of EAs believe that "Pause AI" protests have been net positive in 2030?
44% chance. Some time in Q4 2030 there will be a poll of EAs on the question of AI Pause Activism. This will be part of the annual EA survey (if they agree to it), some other similar survey or a poll I create and post on the EA forum. The question will be multiple choice and worded as follows: What effect have protests calling for a pause / stop / deceleration on the development of AI had on the world? a) Net positive b) None / Negligible c) Net negative Note that the question includes any protest primarily about pausing or slowing AI, not just those branded as PauseAI protests. The poll will be allowed to run for two weeks or whatever length of time the larger survey waits to release results before the market resolves. Will more than 60% of respondents choose a) Net positive? Context: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/eqTGrEsBzJJSiuTcv/the-international-pauseai-protest-activism-under-uncertainty

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