When will rocket lab first attempt to re-fly an Electron booster? #Recovery-and-reuse
4
1.2kṀ18982026
18%
Before July 2025
45%
Before October 2025
60%
Before January 2026
Resolved
NOBefore January 2025
Resolved
NOBefore April 2025
Resolved
NOBefore October 2024
Resolved
NOBefore July 2024
Resolves YES if an Electron rocket launches with a booster that Rocket Lab states has flown before (regardless of amount of refurbishment required)
Launch is defined as lifting off from the pad under its own thrust
The launch is not required to be successful
Answers resolve NO as the dates are reached, and all remaining answers resolve YES once a launch that meets the criteria occurs; more answers may be added based on trading
UTC is used for dates
Please ask if you want anything clarified
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
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