Will Rocket Lab successfully reuse an Electron Booster by EOY 2025?
Will Rocket Lab successfully reuse an Electron Booster by EOY 2025?
16
1kṀ593Dec 31
47%
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Resolves YES if an Electron successfully* launches with a booster that Rocket Lab states has flown before (regardless of amount of refurbishment required)
*Launch is considered successful if it is listed as such on the Next Spaceflight launch manifest
Resolves NO if Rocket Lab state they have given up on reuse of Electron, if Electron is retired, or if no reuses have occurred by the end of 2025
Time zone used is UTC
Related markets:
When will rocket lab first attempt to re-fly an Electron booster? #Recovery-and-reuse
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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