Which orbital booster will hold the reuse turnaround time record, as of EOY 2026?
11
1kṀ34502027
79%
Falcon 9
15%
Super Heavy (Starship)
3%
Electron
1.2%
New Glenn
3%
As of question writing, the record for reuse of a booster on orbital launch attempts is held by Falcon 9 booster B1080, and stands at 14 days. It launched on 2024-11-11 and again on 2024-11-25.
What booster family will hold this record as of the end of 2026?
Launch attempts must be orbital or near-orbital (Starship test flights count as near-orbital). As measured from launch to launch. The second stage must be present but need not be successful. The second flight of the turnaround record need not be successful. The first flight must be successful only to the extent required to attempt reuse.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will an organization besides SpaceX successfully develop a resuable orbital rocket booster launch system by end of 2026?
68% chance
Will anyone propulsively land an orbital-class rocket booster within a decade of SpaceX?
26% chance
Will an organization besides SpaceX successfully develop a resuable orbital rocket booster launch system by end of 2027?
89% chance
Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2025?
When will a non-SpaceX propulsively landed orbital booster be reflown for the first time?
Will the SuperHeavy Booster fly without refurbishment by EOY 2026?
31% chance
When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?
Will Rocket Lab successfully reuse an Electron Booster by EOY 2025?
47% chance
Will there be a new record for people orbiting earth by the end of 2025?
26% chance
Which organisation will be the second after SpaceX to propulsively land an orbital class booster?