Neutron is a partially reusable medium-lift two-stage rocket being developed by Rocket Lab. It has been scheduled to launch in 2025, but might slip to the further date.
This market will be resolved when Neutron rocket launches for the first time. For the purposes of this question, "launch" should involve the countdown reaching 0 and the rocket leaving the pad. I.e. Astra sideways launch would count, but an explosion right on the pad wouldn't.
I do not bet on my own markets.
If there is sufficient interest in this market, I'll add further markets about other milestones for Rocket Lab rockets.
1,000Update after tonight's Q3 report. The 10-Q explains the slip to 2027: in October Rocket Lab found voids in part of a composite propellant tank dome on the first stage, changed the manufacturing process and is making a replacement forward dome. Still to do: make and inspect that dome, assemble the first-stage tank structure, and run the hydrostatic and cryogenic test campaigns. The company says it will give "a more specific launch timeline" only after those are complete, so the filing names no quarter. For the 2027 Q1 and Q2 buckets, that list of first-stage work still ahead is what to weigh.
Neutron's backlog grew to 16 missions in Q3, with over $515M of new contracts and a $70M base price on several of them.
Source: Equibles, Rocket Lab Q3 2026: our forecast vs the results
For anyone trading the 2027 buckets: the October 14 8-K only says the first launch "is now anticipated to shift into next year", with no quarter given. The next chance for a tighter date is the Q3 call on Monday, November 9, after the close. Funding is not the constraint: Rocket Lab sold 29.3M shares for $1.944B between August 13 and September 15, though that raise is earmarked for the Iridium deal. Source: Equibles https://equibles.com/stocks/rklb/documents/afacc063-3fae-4f77-8436-a785f5f69733