An indefinite extension only holds until a formal treaty is signed or a new spark triggers airstrikes. Which of these major pivot points breaks the standoff first?

@traders i made a Polymarket copy version of this market if you don’t like the resolution criteria for this market

I think this is implied but in case it’s not clear, if the war ends, that also counts as ceasefire lasting even if Wikipedia put the war ending date on the article for ceasefire.

Position: none.

For this duration ladder, I think the hinge is less "was the ceasefire politically extended?" and more "what does the source count as a restart?" Trump extended the ceasefire on Apr. 21 (CBS), then told Congress on May 1 that hostilities had terminated (CBS).

The hard case is May 7. CENTCOM says Iranian forces attacked three US destroyers and the US made self-defense strikes (CENTCOM); Axios reports a US official said that did not constitute war resumption, while Iran called the US strikes a ceasefire violation (Axios). Since the market uses the Wikipedia ceasefire article as source, the near buckets look source-definition sensitive: May 7 ends the ladder if treated as resumed war, but not if treated as a contained violation under a continuing ceasefire.

Are we resolving this based on reasonable judgement, or are we going to play games with technicalities like official declarations of war vs resumption of hostilities, the IRGC vs some militia, etc?

@WilliamGunn it’s based on reasonable judgement and vibes of Wikipedia editors and news sources.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c2021zg819lt

😂😂😂😂

@Mochi I m glad I didn’t bet besides setting initial odds. But still Wikipedia and credible media consensus will be used for “ceasefire lasting”, not whether strikes were conducted.

Are there any situations where in retrospect the ceasefire is decided to not really be a ceasefire?

@BodeyBaker the Wikipedia page lists historical violations during the ceasefire period, so Idt they would update it in retrospect unless there is a media consensus on war resumption. In any case, I will wait before resolving each option to account for any potentially delayed reporting.

Here's a market about how long the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, if you're interested in the economic effect of the war in addition to the official situation

Going to use this Wikipedia article as source for whether the ceasefire is still holding https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire

@Mochi how will you handle edit wars (or editorial wishy-washy-ness), or frequent revisions? Will there be a specific strike date or will it have to say a certain thing for X days in a row or Y percentage of a time period?

@Eliza If there’s an edit war or revision, I’d defer to the consensus version that remains stable for a meaningful period (48 hours) and is backed by cited reportings.

@Eliza can I bet on this market? Think the criteria is pretty clear and I m fine with letting mods handle resolution in cases of ambiguity.

@Mochi Do it.

@Eliza Don't tell @Gabrielle

@shankypanky magic liquidity fairy again? It worked really well last time on the war market.

0.5 weeks is measured by 3 full days and 12 hours

@Mochi can you add the dates in parentheses after each option?

@Eliza added, time is in pst